predictions for Iowa State game

Senior Day.  Long winning streak on Senior Day.  Perry Ellis won't let the
Jayhawks lose.  Look for a big effort from Jamari Traylor as well.
Presumably Evan Manning will also get to start.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 9.1 point margin, with an 82.6 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 152.2 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 81, Iowa State 72.  The
Jayhawks have been playing 0.8 points above expectation, while Iowa State
has been playing 0.2 points above expectation, which means that the Jayhawks
could be a 9.8 point favorite.  The trend for Kansas is positive, while the
trend for Iowa State is negative, though neither is statistically significant.
Both have positive mental toughness ratings, though Iowa State's is considerably
stronger and statistically significant.  Taken at face value, the margin for
Kansas is 10.2 points.  Iowa State is by far the more consistent team, but
they've played only 4 of 30 games above expectation by more than 9.1 points,
which would be enough to win today's game.  That corresponds to a 13.3 percent
chance of winning.  Meanwhile, Kansas has played 4 of 29 Division I games below
expectation by more than 9.1 points, which would be enough to lose today's game.
That corresponds to a 13.8 percent chance of losing.  Those average to a 13.6
percent chance of losing, slightly more favorable than derived from the Sagarin
Predictor ratings mentioned above.

Massey gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with an 82 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 86, Iowa State 76.

Pomeroy has Iowa State with the better adjusted offense by 1.2 units, but
Kansas has the better adjusted defense by 7.7 units, which combine to a 6.5
units advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 70.7 possessions per game,
the margin for the Jayhawks works out to 4.6 points on a neutral court.
Given Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 7.9 point
favorite.  The ratings suggest a final score of Kansas 80, Iowa State 72.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
of 84 to 74.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four
of eight categories, namely average score margin, total rebounds per game,
offensive rebound percentage, and free throw attempts per field goal attempt.
Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of seven
categories; Iowa State blocks more shots per game and commits fewer personal
fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 14.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 8.5 points in favor of Kansas, so he is picking Kansas against the
spread.  With a total points projection of 153, the implied final score
is Kansas 83.5, Iowa State 69.5 (you pick the roundings).  Meanwhile, he
claims the Vegas total is 161, which would imply a final score of Kansas 85,
Iowa State 76.

Real Time gives Kansas a 16.0 point margin with a final score of Kansas 83,
Iowa State 67.  The probability of winning the game is given as 74.9 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with a 79.5 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 85, Iowa State 75.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 7.7 units in favor of Kansas, but we
need to calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling
factor of 0.726 just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick
with that value for consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 5.6 point
favorite on a neutral court, but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point
home court advantage, Kansas becomes an 8.9 point favorite.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 2.3 points in favor
of Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and Kansas is a 5.6 point favorite.  I still can't understand the
BPI's low rankings for Kansas both in power and in strength of schedule.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas just a 5.0 point margin, corresponding to a
67 percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score
is 78 to 73.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 8.9 point margin.

DPPI gives Kansas a 9.8 point margin, corresponding to a 74.7 percent
chance of winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 81,
Iowa State 72, with the rounding working in the Cyclones' favor.  This
is based on ratings from Don that are probably out of date by now.

There are eight common opponents, all from the conference, and by now
both teams have completed their home and away series with those other
eight, so I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus
the head-to-head in Ames, giving us 17 scores to compare:

KU   +4 OU  on road ( +8 neutral)     KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
ISU  -4 OU  on road (  0 neutral)     ISU  +5 OU  at home ( +1 neutral)
KU  +12 ISU at home ( +8 neutral)     KU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral)

KU   +9 TT  at home ( +5 neutral)     KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
ISU  +7 TT  at home ( +3 neutral)     ISU  -3 TT  on road ( +1 neutral)
KU   +6 ISU at home ( +2 neutral)     KU  +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)     KU   +6 BU  on road (+10 neutral)
ISU  -5 BU  at home ( -9 neutral)     ISU  -9 BU  on road ( -5 neutral)
KU  +37 ISU at home (+33 neutral)     KU  +19 ISU at home (+15 neutral)

KU  +30 UT  on road (+34 neutral)     KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
ISU  -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral)     ISU +10 UT  at home ( +6 neutral)
KU  +37 ISU at home (+33 neutral)     KU   +3 ISU at home ( -1 neutral)

KU   +9 KSU on road (+13 neutral)     KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)
ISU +13 KSU on road (+17 neutral)     ISU +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral)
KU    0 ISU at home ( -4 neutral)     KU   +3 ISU at home ( -1 neutral)

KU  +19 TCU on road (+23 neutral)     KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)
ISU +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral)     ISU  +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral)
KU  +10 ISU at home ( +6 neutral)     KU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral)

KU  +10 WV  at home ( +6 neutral)     KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
ISU  -5 WV  at home ( -9 neutral)     ISU -10 WV  on road ( -6 neutral)
KU  +19 ISU at home (+15 neutral)     KU   +3 ISU at home ( -1 neutral)

KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)     KU  +27 OSU at home (+23 neutral)
ISU  +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutral)     ISU  +8 OSU at home ( +4 neutral)
KU  -20 ISU at home (-24 neutral)     KU  +23 ISU at home (+19 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
KU   -5 ISU at home ( -9 neutral)

Fourteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, two favor Iowa State, and one
is a wash.  The average favors Kansas by 9.9 points, which is pretty
consistent with many of the other prognostications.

Players to watch:  Guard Monte Morris plays the most minutes, dishes the most
assists, and steals the most balls.  Forward Georges Niang scores the most
points but also commits the most turnovers and the most personal fouls.
Forward Jameel McKay grabs the most rebounds and blocks the most shots, but
has been in and out of the doghouse, which means there is a chance he won't
play, though I certianly haven't heard anything specific about today's game.
Then again, it is the last regular season game.

The average of the various prognostications is 9.7 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 81, Iowa State 71.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  1   #  2   #  2   #  1   #  1   +0.8   11.2   +0.17 +/- 0.25   +0.03 +/- 0.21
Iowa State     # 23   #  7   # 22   # 19   # 21   +0.2    8.0   -0.05 +/- 0.17   +0.20 +/- 0.13
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  1  #  3   #  1   #  4   #  1  #  1    #  2    #  1   #  9   #  1   #  7
Iowa State     # 19  #  7   # 20   # 13   # 22  # 10    # 36    # 21   # 21   # 19   # 20
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  2   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.176   26-4     #     #   
Iowa State     # 18   # 18   # 23   # 14   # 19   # 18   # 19   1.011   21-9     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  #  5    #  1  # 14    #  6  # 65    #  2  #  8    #  3  #  9    #  1  #  5
Iowa State     # 21  # 12    # 27  #  1    # 16  # 11    # 17  # 14    # 15  # 23    # 16  #  7

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 27-4:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #314 Northern Colorado          109  72   +35.48    +1.52
NEUT   #  1 Michigan State              73  79    -0.34    -5.66
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 55 UCLA                        92  73   +11.11    +7.89
NEUT   # 16 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +4.24    +2.76
HOME   #282 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +32.49    +0.51
HOME   #166 Harvard                     75  69   +24.29   -18.29
HOME   #293 Holy Cross                  92  59   +33.59    -0.59
HOME   # 64 Oregon State                82  67   +15.29    -0.29
HOME   #149 Montana                     88  46   +23.13   +18.87
AWAY   # 52 San Diego State             70  57    +7.69    +5.31
HOME   #100 UC Irvine                   78  53   +18.55    +6.45
HOME   # 26 Baylor                     102  74    +9.84   +18.16
HOME   #  8 Oklahoma                   109 106    +5.69    -2.69
AWAY   # 47 Texas Tech                  69  59    +6.56    +3.44
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia               63  74    -2.28    -8.72
HOME   #127 TCU                         70  63   +21.73   -14.73
AWAY   # 82 Oklahoma State              67  86   +10.52   -29.52
HOME   # 32 Texas                       76  67   +10.68    -1.68
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  72  85    +2.49   -15.49
HOME   # 11 Kentucky                    90  84    +6.49    -0.49
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                77  59   +13.08    +4.92
AWAY   #127 TCU                         75  56   +15.09    +3.91
HOME   #  3 West Virginia               75  65    +4.36    +5.64
AWAY   #  8 Oklahoma                    76  72    -0.95    +4.95
HOME   # 82 Oklahoma State              94  67   +17.16    +9.84
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                72  63    +6.44    +2.56
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      66  60    +3.20    +2.80
HOME   # 47 Texas Tech                  67  58   +13.20    -4.20
AWAY   # 32 Texas                       86  56    +4.04   +25.96
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                            +9.13             0.826

Here is Iowa State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 53 Colorado                    68  62    +8.60    -2.60
HOME   #340 Chicago State              106  64   +33.53    +8.47
HOME   #107 Chattanooga                 83  63   +13.74    +6.26
NEUT   # 84 Virginia Tech               99  77    +8.06   +13.94
NEUT   #119 Illinois                    84  73   +11.85    -0.85
HOME   #156 North Dakota State          84  64   +17.85    +2.15
HOME   #153 Buffalo                     84  63   +17.68    +3.32
HOME   # 18 Iowa                        83  82    +2.07    -1.07
HOME   #346 Ark.-Pine Bluff             78  64   +35.15   -21.15
NEUT   # 80 Northern Iowa               79  81    +7.69    -9.69
AWAY   # 30 Cincinnati                  81  79    -1.90    +3.90
HOME   #333 Coppin State               104  84   +31.65   -11.65
AWAY   #  8 Oklahoma                    83  87    -6.76    +2.76
HOME   # 47 Texas Tech                  76  69    +7.39    -0.39
HOME   # 26 Baylor                      89  94    +4.03    -9.03
AWAY   # 32 Texas                       91  94    -1.77    -1.23
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                76  63    +0.63   +12.37
HOME   #  8 Oklahoma                    82  77    -0.12    +5.12
AWAY   #127 TCU                         73  60    +9.28    +3.72
HOME   #  2 Kansas                      85  72    -2.49   +15.49
AWAY   # 21 Texas A&M                   62  72    -4.02    -5.98
HOME   #  3 West Virginia               76  81    -1.45    -3.55
AWAY   # 82 Oklahoma State              64  59    +4.71    +0.29
AWAY   # 47 Texas Tech                  82  85    +0.75    -3.75
HOME   # 32 Texas                       85  75    +4.87    +5.13
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      91 100    -2.61    -6.39
HOME   #127 TCU                         92  83   +15.92    -6.92
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia               87  97    -8.09    -1.91
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                80  61    +7.27   +11.73
HOME   # 82 Oklahoma State              58  50   +11.35    -3.35
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                                -9.13             0.174