Big 12 projection, Round 17

Sole BIG 12 CHAMPS!  Congrats to the Jayhawks.  There is a distinct possibility
that Kansas will win the conference by three games (actually a 35 percent chance).
Of course, there is also a chance that Kansas will win the conference by only one
game (10 percent probability).  The most likely scenario is that Kansas will win
the conference by two games, which is amazing considering how they trailed in the
projection by two games after Round 8.  Of course, being the final Round, the
fractional win is just the probability of winning the final conference game.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15  Rd 16  Rd 17
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95  12.20  12.36  12.85  13.53  13.64  13.93  14.36  14.41  14.83   14  3   ISU (Sa)   KU  by  9.1
#  3  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18  13.50  13.78  13.33  13.44  12.80  12.01  12.25  12.46  12.58   12  5  @BU  (Sa)   WV  by  2.1   projected road win
#  8  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94  13.83  12.86  12.96  12.26  11.50  12.22  12.31  11.69  11.92   11  6  @TCU (Sa)   OU  by 12.7   projected road win
# 33  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05  10.13  10.35  10.25   9.92  10.58   9.85  10.39  11.03  10.59   10  7  @OSU (Fr)   UT  by  2.6   projected road win
# 26  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97  10.22   9.99  10.59   9.60  10.10  10.82  10.39  10.66  10.42   10  7   WV  (Sa)
# 22  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09  10.49  10.85  10.17  10.53  10.03  10.08   9.87  10.08  10.17   10  7  @KU  (Sa)   
# 47  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77   5.96   5.74   6.46   7.47   8.24   8.81   8.87   8.80   8.66    8  9   KSU (Sa)   TT  by  3.2
# 45  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47   6.11   7.11   6.41   5.90   6.24   5.96   5.42   5.21   5.34    5 12  @TT  (Sa)   
# 81  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27   5.15   4.72   4.06   4.46   4.33   3.83   3.73   3.48   3.41    3 14   UT  (Fr)   
#128  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31   2.41   2.24   2.92   2.89   2.54   2.49   2.41   2.18   2.08    2 14   OU  (Sa)   

DPPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 17.  As a result, I'm sure that
Don won't mind the fact that I wasn't able to use his very latest projections.
Anyway, he predicted the largest margins for the Kansas, Kansas State, and West
Virginia games, and those three did have large margins.  Not a good round overall,
thanks to Kansas really whooping Texas.  Greenfield retains the season lead
marginally over Vegas, with Seven Overtimes bringing up the rear marginally over
Real Time.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           2          2+           1           2     1     2     +     1     2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
KU  over UT      2.7   2.0   1.6   1.5   3.5   1.5  -2.0   1.7   2.8   1.1  -2.0   0.4   3.2   1.3   0.4   4.9     30    27.3  28.0  28.4  28.5  26.5  28.5  32.0  28.3  27.2  28.9  32.0  29.6  26.8  28.7  29.6  25.1
OU  over BU      7.9   8.0   7.0   7.5  10.5   7.5  13.0   7.6   8.0   8.4   6.0   8.0   8.3  10.2   6.8   9.0      2     5.9   6.0   5.0   5.5   8.5   5.5  11.0   5.6   6.0   6.4   4.0   6.0   6.3   8.2   4.8   7.0
KSU over TCU    11.2  12.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  10.0  18.0  10.3  10.2   9.8  12.0  10.0  11.3  13.2  10.8  14.5     25    13.8  13.0  15.0  14.0  13.0  15.0   7.0  14.7  14.8  15.2  13.0  15.0  13.7  11.8  14.2  10.5
ISU over OSU    11.3  13.0  12.2  14.0  10.0  14.0  20.0  11.4  11.9  11.9  12.0  12.7  11.7  13.5  10.4  14.1      8     3.3   5.0   4.2   6.0   2.0   6.0  12.0   3.4   3.9   3.9   4.0   4.7   3.7   5.5   2.4   6.1
WV  over TT     11.5  10.0   8.4  10.5  11.0   9.0  10.0  10.0   8.9   7.9   5.0  10.7  12.2  14.1  10.9  16.9     22    10.5  12.0  13.6  11.5  11.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  13.1  14.1  17.0  11.3   9.8   7.9  11.1   5.1

total this round                                                                                                         60.8  64.0  66.2  65.5  61.0  68.0  74.0  64.0  65.0  68.5  70.0  66.6  60.3  62.1  62.1  53.8
previous total                                                                                                          557.2 585.0 577.3 539.0 615.5 547.5 627.0 567.7 576.1 595.0 632.0 570.6 571.3 579.5 605.9 585.2
cumulative                                                                                                              618.0 649.0 643.5 604.5 676.5 615.5 701.0 631.7 641.1 663.5 702.0 637.2 631.6 641.6 668.0 639.0
per game (total of 85)                                                                                                    7.3   7.6   7.6   7.1   8.0   7.2   8.2   7.4   7.5   7.8   8.3   7.5   7.4   7.5   7.9   7.5

Only one road win was projected for Round 17, and it came to pass in
spectacular fashion.  Three road wins are projected for Round 18, but
only one of them has a high probability of occurrence.  That is, I
wouldn't be surprised if Baylor takes down West Virginia and Oklahoma
State adds to the Longhorns' misery.

Road wins (30 out of 85)                    Home losses                                 Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   -----------------------------------------   --------------------
6 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU KSU UT  TCU   0 Kansas                                    +6 Kansas        
6 Kansas          TT  TCU OU  KSU BU  UT    1 Oklahoma        KU                        +3 West Virginia 
5 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT  ISU OSU       2 Iowa State      BU  WV                    +2 Baylor        
3 Iowa State      KSU TCU OSU               2 Texas           BU  KU                    +2 Oklahoma      
3 Oklahoma        OSU BU  WV                2 West Virginia   UT  OU                    +1 Iowa State    
3 Texas           WV  BU  KSU               3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV                +1 Texas         
3 Texas Tech      TCU BU  OSU               4 Baylor          OU  UT  TT  KU             0 Texas Tech    
1 Kansas State    TCU                       5 Kansas State    WV  ISU BU  KU  UT        -4 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                            5 Oklahoma State  OU  BU  ISU TT  WV        -5 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                       6 TCU             WV  TT  ISU KU  KSU BU    -6 TCU           

A 30-point road win over an upper division opponent did wonders for the Kansas
trend, now at the top of the conference, and also made the mental toughness
statistic positive, the first time I've seen that for Kansas this late in the
season in a while.  That bodes well for the Big Dance.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.17    Texas Tech        7.73    Kansas          +0.17 +/- 0.25    Iowa State      +0.20 +/- 0.13
Kansas          +0.79    Iowa State        8.05    Texas           +0.13 +/- 0.25    Oklahoma State  +0.08 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma        +0.57    Kansas State      8.17    Texas Tech      +0.07 +/- 0.17    Kansas          +0.02 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech      +0.34    Oklahoma          9.10    Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.18    Oklahoma         0.00 +/- 0.17
Baylor          +0.20    TCU               9.20    Baylor          -0.05 +/- 0.26    Kansas State    -0.03 +/- 0.13
Iowa State      +0.18    Oklahoma State    9.95    Iowa State      -0.05 +/- 0.17    Texas           -0.03 +/- 0.23
Texas           +0.03    West Virginia    10.78    Oklahoma State  -0.08 +/- 0.21    Baylor          -0.06 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State  -0.09    Kansas           11.12    TCU             -0.15 +/- 0.20    Texas Tech      -0.09 +/- 0.15
Kansas State    -0.12    Baylor           11.45    Oklahoma        -0.25 +/- 0.20    TCU             -0.11 +/- 0.13
TCU             -0.26    Texas            11.85    West Virginia   -0.35 +/- 0.22    West Virginia   -0.54 +/- 0.17

And now 8 of the top 12 strengths of schedule are in the Big 12 conference.
Saturday's finale with Iowa State features the conference's most prolific
offense and the conference's most porous defense coming to Allen Field House.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Iowa State      81.70    West Virginia   66.77    Iowa State      156.67    West Virginia   +12.83    Texas           82.24 ( 1)
Oklahoma        80.76    Oklahoma State  67.23    Oklahoma        151.52    Kansas          +12.14    Kansas          81.30 ( 3)
Kansas          79.90    Kansas State    67.70    Kansas          147.66    Oklahoma        +10.00    Oklahoma        81.23 ( 4)
West Virginia   79.60    Kansas          67.76    Baylor          147.28    Iowa State       +6.73    Texas Tech      81.04 ( 5)
Baylor          76.86    Texas           68.97    West Virginia   146.37    Baylor           +6.45    Iowa State      80.64 ( 7)
Texas Tech      72.07    Texas Tech      70.31    Texas Tech      142.38    Kansas State     +2.60    Baylor          80.13 (10)
Texas           71.47    Baylor          70.41    Texas           140.43    Texas            +2.50    West Virginia   80.01 (11)
Kansas State    70.30    Oklahoma        70.76    TCU             138.17    Texas Tech       +1.76    Kansas State    80.01 (12)
Oklahoma State  66.70    TCU             71.60    Kansas State    138.00    Oklahoma State   -0.53    TCU             79.80 (16)
TCU             66.57    Iowa State      74.97    Oklahoma State  133.93    TCU              -5.03    Oklahoma State  79.60 (21)