predictions for Texas game

I leave Singapore and the hotel with the Internet access shortly after
the Texas game.  Doubtful that I'll be able to do anything for the finale
against Iowa State.

Last chance to catch Baylor, who has six road conference wins.  And it's
an opportunity to win the conference championship outright.  But the
Sooners wilted down the stretch in their Saturday game with Texas.  Can
the Jayhawks pull off what Oklahoma failed to do?

Sagarin gives Kansas a 2.7 point margin, with a 60.0 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 144.1 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 73, Texas 71, with the
rounding going in the Longhorns' favor.  The Jayhawks have been playing
0.7 points above expectation, while Texas has been playing 0.2 points
above expectation, which means that the Jayhawks could be a 3.2 point
favorite.  The trend for Kansas is now flat, while Texas has been showing
some significant improvement.  The mental toughness rating for Kansas is
slightly negative while being slightly positive for Texas, though neither
is statistically significant.  But taken at face value, the margin for
Kansas is reduced to just 0.4 points.  Overtime, anyone?  Texas is less
consistent than Kansas.  They've played 10 of their 29 games above
expectation by more than 2.7 points, which would be enough to win today's
game.  That corresponds to a 34.5 percent chance of winning.  Meanwhile,
Kansas has played 7 of 28 Division I games below expectation by more than
2.7 points, which would be enough to lose today's game (but only one of
those occurred in the last nine games, and it was Saturday's contest with
Texas Tech).  That corresponds to a 25 percent chance of losing.  The two
average to a 29.7 percent chance of Kansas losing, a fair bit more
optimistic than the probability derived from the Sagarin ratings described
above.

Massey gives Kansas a 2.0 point margin, with a 57 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 72, Texas 70.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 5.1 units, as well
as the better adjusted defense by 2.2 units, which combine to a 7.3 units
advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 67.7 possessions per game, the
margin for the Jayhawks works out to 4.9 points on a neutral court.  Given
Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 1.6 point
favorite.  The ratings suggest a final score of Kansas 72, Texas 70, in
agreement with Massey.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 1.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
of 71 to 70.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six
of eight categories; Texas attempts marginally more free throws per field
goal attempt and has a smaller turnover percentage.  Among the key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of seven categories; Texas grabs more
offensive rebounds per game and blocks more shots per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 3.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 1.5 points in favor of Kansas, so he is picking Kansas against the
spread.  With a total points projection of 137, the implied final score
is Kansas 70, Texas 67.  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 141.5,
which would imply a final score of Kansas 71.5 (you pick the rounding),
Texas 70.

Real Time makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog with a final score of
Kansas 74, Texas 76.  The probability of winning the game is given
as 46.8 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.  Guess
who is back on top of the RPI rankings?

Dolphin gives Kansas a 1.7 point margin, with a 55.9 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 71, Texas 70, with
the rounding working in the Longhorns' favor.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 8.5 units in favor of Kansas, but we
need to calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling
factor of 0.726 just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick
with that value for consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 6.1 point
favorite on a neutral court, but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point
home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 2.8 point favorite.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 4.4 points in favor
of Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and Kansas is a 1.1 point favorite.

Seven Overtimes once again makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog, corresponding
to a 44 percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score
is 71 to 73.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 0.4 point margin.

DPPI gives Kansas a 4.9 point margin, corresponding to a 63.1 percent
chance of winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 75,
Texas 70.  This is based on ratings from Don that are probably out of
date by now.

There are eight common opponents, all from the conference, one of which
Texas has played twice (Iowa State), one of which Kansas has played twice
(Oklahoma State), and six of which both have played twice (the rest of
the conference), in which case I'm using only the home-home and road-road
permutations, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us 17 scores to
compare:

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)     KU   +9 TT  at home ( +5 neutral)
UT   -8 TT  on road ( -4 neutral)     UT  +10 TT  at home ( +6 neutral)
KU  +14 UT  on road (+18 neutral)     KU   -5 UT  on road ( -1 neutral)

KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)     KU   +9 KSU on road (+13 neutral)
UT   +3 KSU at home ( -1 neutral)     UT   +1 KSU on road ( +5 neutral)
KU  +11 UT  on road (+15 neutral)     KU   +4 UT  on road ( +8 neutral)

KU  +19 TCU on road (+23 neutral)     KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)
UT   -1 TCU on road ( +3 neutral)     UT  +17 TCU at home (+13 neutral)
KU  +16 UT  on road (+20 neutral)     KU  -14 UT  on road (-10 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)     KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
UT   +3 ISU at home ( -1 neutral)     UT  -10 ISU on road ( -6 neutral)
KU  -12 UT  on road ( -8 neutral)     KU   -7 UT  on road ( -3 neutral)

KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)     KU  +27 OSU at home (+23 neutral)
UT   +5 OSU at home ( +1 neutral)     UT   +5 OSU at home ( +1 neutral)
KU  -20 UT  on road (-16 neutral)     KU  +18 UT  on road (+22 neutral)

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)     KU  +10 WV  at home ( +6 neutral)
UT   +7 WV  on road (+11 neutral)     UT   +7 WV  at home ( +3 neutral)
KU  -22 UT  on road (-18 neutral)     KU   -1 UT  on road ( +3 neutral)

KU   +6 BU  on road (+10 neutral)     KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
UT   +8 BU  on road (+12 neutral)     UT  -14 BU  at home (-18 neutral)
KU   -6 UT  on road ( -2 neutral)     KU  +38 UT  on road (+42 neutral)

KU   +4 OU  on road ( +8 neutral)     KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
UT   -3 OU  on road ( +1 neutral)     UT  +13 OU  at home ( +9 neutral)
KU   +3 UT  on road ( +7 neutral)     KU  -14 UT  on road (-10 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
KU   +1 UT  on road ( +5 neutral)

Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, while nine favor Texas.  The average,
however, favors Kansas by 0.24 points, mainly on the strength of that Baylor
home game comparison, though the standard deviation is a whopping 15.6 points.

Players to watch:  Guard Isaiah Taylor plays the most minutes, scores the
most points, dishes the most assists, and steals the most balls.  He would
seem to be the key to the game.  Center Cameron Ridley grabs the most
rebounds per game, blocks the most shots, but also commits the most
turnovers.  Interesting, because Ridley has been out with a foot injury
for a very long time.  Center Prince Ibeh commits the most personal fouls.

The average of the various prognostications is 1.5 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 73, Texas 71, with the rounding
working in Kansas' favor.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  2   #  3   #  2   #  2   #  1   +0.7   10.2    0.00 +/- 0.24   -0.06 +/- 0.19
Texas          # 26   #  1   # 31   # 26   # 19   +0.1   11.0   +0.33 +/- 0.24   +0.03 +/- 0.21
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  1  #  4   #  4   #  5   #  2  #  2    #  2    #  2   # 13   #  1   #  9
Texas          # 20  #  2   # 26   #  1   # 30  #  7    # 34    # 24   #  3   # 20   #  4
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  2   #  2   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.128   25-4     #     #   
Texas          # 20   # 19   # 23   # 24   # 20   # 19   # 23   1.076   19-10    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  #  5    #  1  # 14    #  7  # 58    #  2  # 10    #  5  # 10    #  1  #  6
Texas          # 25  #  1    # 27  #  1    # 30  #  1    # 29  #  1    # 34  #  4    # 18  #  1

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #310 Northern Colorado          109  72   +34.36    +2.64
NEUT   #  1 Michigan State              73  79    -1.04    -4.96
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 52 UCLA                        92  73   +10.11    +8.89
NEUT   # 16 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +3.56    +3.44
HOME   #280 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +31.37    +1.63
HOME   #168 Harvard                     75  69   +23.70   -17.70
HOME   #306 Holy Cross                  92  59   +33.57    -0.57
HOME   # 62 Oregon State                82  67   +14.35    +0.65
HOME   #161 Montana                     88  46   +23.04   +18.96
AWAY   # 63 San Diego State             70  57    +7.72    +5.28
HOME   #101 UC Irvine                   78  53   +17.82    +7.18
HOME   # 26 Baylor                     102  74    +9.23   +18.77
HOME   #  8 Oklahoma                   109 106    +4.71    -1.71
AWAY   # 44 Texas Tech                  69  59    +5.36    +4.64
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia               63  74    -2.83    -8.17
HOME   #125 TCU                         70  63   +20.51   -13.51
AWAY   # 80 Oklahoma State              67  86    +9.45   -28.45
HOME   # 31 Texas                       76  67    +9.39    -0.39
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  72  85    +1.49   -14.49
HOME   # 11 Kentucky                    90  84    +5.81    +0.19
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                77  59   +12.72    +5.28
AWAY   #125 TCU                         75  56   +13.79    +5.21
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               75  65    +3.89    +6.11
AWAY   #  8 Oklahoma                    76  72    -2.01    +6.01
HOME   # 80 Oklahoma State              94  67   +16.17   +10.83
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                72  63    +6.00    +3.00
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      66  60    +2.51    +3.49
HOME   # 44 Texas Tech                  67  58   +12.08    -3.08
AWAY   # 31 Texas                                 +2.67             0.600
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                            +8.21             0.814

Here is Texas' season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 58 Washington                  71  77    +4.78   -10.78
HOME   #176 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     67  56   +18.00    -7.00
NEUT   # 21 Texas A&M                   73  84    -1.51    -9.49
NEUT   # 58 Washington                  82  70    +4.78    +7.22
NEUT   # 35 Michigan                    72  78    +0.77    -6.77
HOME   # 94 Texas-Arlington             80  73   +10.97    -3.97
HOME   #234 Samford                     59  49   +22.07   -12.07
HOME   #335 UTSA                       116  50   +31.16   +34.84
HOME   #  6 North Carolina              84  82    -1.88    +3.88
HOME   #272 Appalachian State           67  55   +24.89   -12.89
AWAY   # 72 Stanford                    75  73    +2.88    -0.88
HOME   # 30 Connecticut                 66  71    +3.30    -8.30
AWAY   # 44 Texas Tech                  74  82    -0.67    -7.33
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                60  57    +6.69    -3.69
AWAY   #125 TCU                         57  58    +7.76    -8.76
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  94  91    +2.18    +0.82
HOME   # 80 Oklahoma State              74  69   +10.14    -5.14
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia               56  49    -8.86   +15.86
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                      67  76    -9.39    +0.39
HOME   #125 TCU                         71  54   +14.48    +2.52
HOME   # 16 Vanderbilt                  72  58    +0.89   +13.11
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      67  59    -3.52   +11.52
HOME   # 44 Texas Tech                  69  59    +6.05    +3.95
AWAY   #  8 Oklahoma                    60  63    -8.04    +5.04
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  75  85    -4.54    -5.46
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               85  78    -2.14    +9.14
HOME   # 26 Baylor                      64  78    +3.20   -17.20
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                71  70    -0.03    +1.03
HOME   #  8 Oklahoma                    76  63    -1.32   +14.32
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -2.67             0.400
AWAY   # 80 Oklahoma State                        +3.42             0.627