Big 12 projection, Round 16

I'm on the Internet from a hotel in Singapore.  Board the cruise ship tomorrow.  Rumor
has it that AT&T's plan for Smart Phones charges something like $10 per Megabyte
(really, per MEGAbyte) for access on board the ship.  If Internet for laptops is
comparably expensive, I'll definitely not be signing up for Internet access.  Anyway,
here's the latest Big 12 projection.  Copy and paste into a wide-windowed editor to
avoid the line wrap issues here on the board.

BIG 12 12 CHAMPS!  (No, that's not a accidental redundancy.)  Congrats to the Jayhawks.
#12 sure didn't look promising after Round 8, but not only did Kansas turn things
around, they did it with two games left to play.  Absolutely amazing.

Texas beating Oklahoma was a bigger deal than Baylor beating TCU, so the virtual
tie for fourth place has been broken in Texas' favor.  And Oklahoma drops to
third as a result of that loss.  No other changes in the rankings, though having
one champion identified is a big change from Round 15.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15  Rd 16
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95  12.20  12.36  12.85  13.53  13.64  13.93  14.36  14.41   13  3  @UT  (Mo)   KU  by  2.6   projected road win
#  5  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18  13.50  13.78  13.33  13.44  12.80  12.01  12.25  12.46   11  5   TT  (We)   WV  by 11.5
#  8  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94  13.83  12.86  12.96  12.26  11.50  12.22  12.31  11.69   10  6   BU  (Tu)   OU  by  8.6
# 30  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05  10.13  10.35  10.25   9.92  10.58   9.85  10.39  11.03   10  6   KU  (Mo)   
# 28  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97  10.22   9.99  10.59   9.60  10.10  10.82  10.39  10.66   10  6  @OU  (Tu)
# 22  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09  10.49  10.85  10.17  10.53  10.03  10.08   9.87  10.08    9  7   OSU (Mo)   ISU by 11.3
# 44  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77   5.96   5.74   6.46   7.47   8.24   8.81   8.87   8.80    8  8  @WV  (We)   
# 47  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47   6.11   7.11   6.41   5.90   6.24   5.96   5.42   5.21    4 12   TCU (We)   KSU by 11.1
# 80  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27   5.15   4.72   4.06   4.46   4.33   3.83   3.73   3.48    3 13  @ISU (Mo)   
#126  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31   2.41   2.24   2.92   2.89   2.54   2.49   2.41   2.18    2 14  @KSU (We)   

Real Time took honors for best prognostications in Round 16, mainly on the basis
of its predicted margin for Iowa State, though picking Texas to beat Oklahoma also
helped, though not as much, as others had also picked Texas.  Greenfield retains
the season lead, with the Real Time win in this round getting them out of the cellar
marginally over Seven Overtimes.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           2          2+           1           2     1     2     +     1     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
OU  over UT      2.2   2.0   2.0  -1.0   3.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.4   2.8   2.5  -2.0   0.8   2.8   1.0   1.3   2.1    -13    15.2  15.0  15.0  12.0  16.0  12.0  11.0  14.4  15.8  15.5  11.0  13.8  15.8  14.0  14.3  15.1
ISU over KSU     7.1   9.0   8.3   9.0  11.0   8.5  14.0   6.7   7.1   7.4   6.0   8.3   7.5   9.4   4.4  10.4     19    11.9  10.0  10.7  10.0   8.0  10.5   5.0  12.3  11.9  11.6  13.0  10.7  11.5   9.6  14.6   8.6
BU  over TCU     7.4   7.0   6.4   8.5   6.0   8.5   5.0   6.9   6.6   4.4   5.0   5.5   7.8   5.9   6.7   7.0     15     7.6   8.0   8.6   6.5   9.0   6.5  10.0   8.1   8.4  10.6  10.0   9.5   7.2   9.1   8.3   8.0
WV  over OSU     8.6   6.0   4.9   6.5   8.5   6.5  12.0   7.7   7.3   5.8   3.0   7.4   9.8   8.0   8.6   8.2     14     5.4   8.0   9.1   7.5   5.5   7.5   2.0   6.3   6.7   8.2  11.0   6.6   4.2   6.0   5.4   5.8
KU  over TT     12.3  12.0  10.1  13.5  15.0  12.5  15.0  11.4  11.3   8.3   6.0  11.4  12.6  14.5  12.8  16.7      9     3.3   3.0   1.1   4.5   6.0   3.5   6.0   2.4   2.3   0.7   3.0   2.4   3.6   5.5   3.8   7.7

total this round                                                                                                         43.4  44.0  44.5  40.5  44.5  40.0  34.0  43.5  45.1  46.6  48.0  43.0  42.3  44.2  46.4  45.2
previous total                                                                                                          513.8 541.0 532.8 498.5 571.0 507.5 593.0 524.2 531.0 548.4 584.0 527.6 529.0 535.3 559.5 540.0
cumulative                                                                                                              557.2 585.0 577.3 539.0 615.5 547.5 627.0 567.7 576.1 595.0 632.0 570.6 571.3 579.5 605.9 585.2
per game (total of 80)                                                                                                    7.0   7.3   7.2   6.7   7.7   6.8   7.8   7.1   7.2   7.4   7.9   7.1   7.1   7.2   7.6   7.3

Three road wins were projected for Round 16, but Oklahoma couldn't hold on to its
lead in Austin and fell to Texas by double digits.  Baylor continues to play well
on the road, but somehow can't duplicate that success at home.  Only one road win
is projected for Round 17, namely Kansas over Texas in Austin, and we need only
one road win in the last two rounds to reach the long-term average of one-in-three
road wins.  Amazing how consistent this ratio has been over the years.

Road wins (29 out of 80)                    Home losses                                 Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   -----------------------------------------   --------------------
6 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU KSU UT  TCU   0 Kansas                                    +5 Kansas        
5 Kansas          TT  TCU OU  KSU BU        1 Oklahoma        KU                        +3 West Virginia 
5 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT  ISU OSU       1 Texas           BU                        +2 Oklahoma      
3 Iowa State      KSU TCU OSU               2 Iowa State      BU  WV                    +2 Texas         
3 Oklahoma        OSU BU  WV                2 West Virginia   UT  OU                    +2 Baylor        
3 Texas           WV  BU  KSU               3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV                +1 Iowa State    
3 Texas Tech      TCU BU  OSU               4 Baylor          OU  UT  TT  KU             0 Texas Tech    
1 Kansas State    TCU                       5 Kansas State    WV  ISU BU  KU  UT        -4 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                            5 Oklahoma State  OU  BU  ISU TT  WV        -5 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                       6 TCU             WV  TT  ISU KU  KSU BU    -6 TCU           

Self has been shortening practices in an effort to keep legs fresh.  Makes
sense.  Which raises an interesting hypothesis:  Do you suppose West Virginia's
pressing style is wearing the Mountaineers out?  Their trend is at the bottom
of the conference by a wide margin, and it is statistically very significant.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.13    Texas Tech        7.62    Texas           +0.32 +/- 0.24    Iowa State      +0.19 +/- 0.13
Oklahoma        +0.71    Kansas State      7.99    Texas Tech      +0.15 +/- 0.18    Oklahoma State  +0.07 +/- 0.17
Kansas          +0.68    Iowa State        8.11    Kansas           0.00 +/- 0.24    Oklahoma        +0.04 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech      +0.41    Oklahoma          8.83    Iowa State      -0.04 +/- 0.18    Texas           +0.03 +/- 0.21
Iowa State      +0.23    TCU               9.06    Kansas State    -0.07 +/- 0.18    Kansas State     0.00 +/- 0.13
Baylor          +0.20    Oklahoma State   10.08    Baylor          -0.08 +/- 0.28    Texas Tech      -0.05 +/- 0.15
Texas           +0.14    Kansas           10.17    TCU             -0.08 +/- 0.20    Kansas          -0.06 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State  -0.11    West Virginia    10.67    Oklahoma State  -0.12 +/- 0.23    Baylor          -0.09 +/- 0.19
Kansas State    -0.13    Texas            10.94    Oklahoma        -0.13 +/- 0.22    TCU             -0.09 +/- 0.13
TCU             -0.26    Baylor           11.63    West Virginia   -0.44 +/- 0.23    West Virginia   -0.55 +/- 0.16

Everybody is now in the Top 25 in strength of schedule, and 6 of the top 8
strengths of schedule are in the Big 12.  Amazing.  Oklahoma State finally
slipped into negative territory in the scoring margin statistic.  Keep in
mind that I correct these numbers to a neutral court, so they might disagree
with other sources of average offense and defense.  Total points is unaffected,
and scoring margin is affected primarily by non-conference games, which tend
to be home games for teams in the Power 5 conferences.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Iowa State      82.59    West Virginia   66.66    Iowa State      158.34    West Virginia   +12.66    Texas           82.00 ( 1)
Oklahoma        81.70    Oklahoma State  67.62    Oklahoma        152.26    Kansas          +11.36    Oklahoma        81.10 ( 3)
Kansas          79.61    Kansas State    68.10    Kansas          147.86    Oklahoma        +11.15    Kansas          80.96 ( 4)
West Virginia   79.31    Kansas          68.25    Baylor          147.39    Iowa State       +6.83    Iowa State      80.95 ( 5)
Baylor          77.00    Texas           68.31    West Virginia   145.97    Baylor           +6.61    Texas Tech      80.62 ( 6)
Texas Tech      72.14    Texas Tech      69.68    Texas Tech      141.82    Texas            +3.76    Kansas State    80.52 ( 8)
Texas           72.07    Baylor          70.39    Texas           140.38    Texas Tech       +2.46    West Virginia   80.00 (10)
Kansas State    70.07    Oklahoma        70.56    TCU             138.34    Kansas State     +1.97    Baylor          79.58 (18)
Oklahoma State  67.21    TCU             71.41    Kansas State    138.17    Oklahoma State   -0.41    TCU             79.54 (19)
TCU             66.93    Iowa State      75.76    Oklahoma State  134.83    TCU              -4.48    Oklahoma State  79.24 (22)