predictions for Texas Tech game

Normally, I hate these early tips, but in this particular case, I'll
be heading straight to the airport immediately after the game, assuming
it doesn't go into overtime, otherwise I'll need to miss the end of the
game.  And just in case I'm unable to connect to the Internet while on
travel, here are the current predictions for the last two games, based
on the latest Sagarin Predictor ratings:

Kansas 74, Texas 71
Kansas 81, Iowa State 73

Again, don't count on game predictions for the Big 12 Tournament.

So, on paper, we went from the most difficult remaining game on the
schedule this past Tuesday to the easiest remaining game today.  I
certainly hope so.  Then again, Texas Tech is riding a five-game
winning streak and extremely confident.  On the other hand, Kansas
is riding an eight-game winning streak, is at home, and wants to win
at least a share of the Big 12 title in front of their own fans.  As
Dave Armstrong might say, "Wow!"

Sagarin gives Kansas a 12.3 point margin, with a 91.1 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 145.6 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 79, Texas Tech 67.  Kansas
has been playing 0.7 points above expectation, while Texas Tech has been
playing 0.4 points above expectation, which means that the Jayhawks could
be a 12.6 point favorite.  Both team have positive trends stemming from
winning streaks.  Texas Tech's trend is almost four times larger than
Kansas', but neither is statistically significant.  Both teams have
negative mental toughness ratings, but neither is statistically significant.
Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas increases slightly to 12.8 points.
Texas Tech has been the conference's most consistent team.  Except for two
games, all have been played within 10 points of expectation.  That
shellacking of Baylor in Waco is easily their best game of the year, and
it would take a repeat of that to win today.  It's happened only once in
27 games, corresponding to a 3.7 percent chance of winning.  Meanwhile,
Kansas has played below expectation by more than 12.3 points in 4 out of
27 Division I games, corresponding to a 14.8 percent chance of losing
today's game.  That's an average of 9.3 percent, in excellent agreement
with the probability derived from the Sagarin ratings mentioned above.

Massey gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin, with an 88 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 80, Texas Tech 68.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 5.4 units, as well
as the better adjusted defense by 4.5 units, which combine to a 9.9 units
advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 68.1 possessions per game, the
margin for the Jayhawks works out to 6.7 points on a neutral court.  Given
Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 10.1 point
favorite.  The ratings suggest a final score of Kansas 77, Texas Tech 67.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 13.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
of 79 to 65.5 (you pick the rounding).  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in six of eight categories; Texas Tech attempts more free
throws per field goal attempt and also has a slightly lower turnover
percentage.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five
of seven categories; Texas Tech blocks more shots per game and commits fewer
personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 15.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 12.5 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With a total
points projection of 142, the implied final score is Kansas 78.5, Texas
Tech 63.5 (you pick the roundings).  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total
is 144.5, which would imply a final score of Kansas 78.5 (you pick the
rounding), Texas Tech 66.

Real Time gives Kansas a 15.0 point margin with a final score of
Kansas 84, Texas Tech 69.  The probability of winning the game is given
as 74.6 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.  Guess
who is back on top of the RPI rankings?

Dolphin gives Kansas an 11.4 point margin, with an 83.8 percent probability
of winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 78, Texas Tech 67.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 10.9 units in favor of Kansas, but we
need to calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling
factor of 0.726 just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick
with that value for consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 7.9 point
favorite on a neutral court, but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point
home court advantage, Kansas becomes an 11.3 point favorite, with rounding
accounting for the extra tenth of a point.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 5.0 points in favor
of Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and Kansas is an 8.3 point favorite.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin, corresponding to a 71 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 76 to 70.
Easily the least optimistic for Kansas of the various projections listed here.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 11.4 point margin.  The Jayhawks are his #1 team.

DPPI gives Kansas a 16.7 point margin.

There are eight common opponents, all from the conference, two of which
Texas Tech has played twice (Texas and Iowa State), two of which Kansas
has played twice (Kansas State and West Virginia), and four of which
both have played twice (Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State), in
which case I'm using only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus
the head-to-head in Lubbock, giving us 17 scores to compare:

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)     KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
TT   +8 UT  at home ( +4 neutral)     TT  -10 UT  on road ( -6 neutral)
KU   +5 TT  at home ( +1 neutral)     KU  +15 TT  at home (+11 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)     KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
TT   -7 ISU on road ( -3 neutral)     TT   +3 ISU at home ( -1 neutral)
KU   -2 TT  at home ( -6 neutral)     KU   -4 TT  at home ( -8 neutral)

KU   +9 KSU on road (+13 neutral)     KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)
TT  -13 KSU on road ( -9 neutral)     TT  -13 KSU on road ( -9 neutral)
KU  +26 TT  at home (+22 neutral)     KU  +27 TT  at home (+23 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)     KU   +6 BU  on road (+10 neutral)
TT   -3 BU  at home ( -7 neutral)     TT  +18 BU  on road (+22 neutral)
KU  +35 TT  at home (+31 neutral)     KU   -8 TT  at home (-12 neutral)

KU  +19 TCU on road (+23 neutral)     KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)
TT   +7 TCU on road (+11 neutral)     TT   +4 TCU at home (  0 neutral)
KU  +16 TT  at home (+12 neutral)     KU   +7 TT  at home ( +3 neutral)

KU  +10 WV  at home ( +6 neutral)     KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
TT   -4 WV  at home ( -8 neutral)     TT   -4 WV  at home ( -8 neutral)
KU  +18 TT  at home (+14 neutral)     KU   +5 TT  at home ( +1 neutral)

KU   +4 OU  on road ( +8 neutral)     KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
TT  -24 OU  on road (-20 neutral)     TT   +2 OU  at home ( -2 neutral)
KU  +32 TT  at home (+28 neutral)     KU   +5 TT  at home ( +1 neutrla)

KU  +27 OSU at home (+23 neutral)     KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)
TT   +2 OSU at home ( -2 neutral)     TT  +10 OSU on road (+14 neutral)
KU  +29 TT  at home (+25 neutral)     KU  -25 TT  at home (-29 neutral)

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
KU  +18 TT  at home (+14 neutral)

Thirteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while four favor Texas Tech.
The average is 11.7 points in favor of Kansas, though the standard deviation
is a whopping 16.1 points.

Players to watch:  Forward Zach Smith plays the most minutes, grabs the most
rebounds, and blocks the most shots.  Guard Toddrick Gotcher scores the most
points, and is their leading thief.  Guard Keenan Evans dishes the most
assists.  Center Norense Odiase commits the most turnovers and the most
personal fouls; with statistics like that, perhaps it's fortunate for
Texas Tech, he's out with a foot injury and not expected back until March.

The average of the various prognostications is 12.2 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 79, Texas Tech 67.

And while waiting for the game, can somebody explain why so many of the
computer rankings say that Texas Tech has played the tougher schedule?
True, their conference schedule is tougher than Kansas' conference schedule,
but that's true for all conference teams, because they all have to play the
conference's top team (Kansas), whereas Kansas does not.  But otherwise the
conference schedules are the same.  So the main difference has to be in the
non-conference schedules.  Yes, Texas Tech played six Top 100 teams, while
Kansas only played five Top 100 teams, but two of those are in the Top 20,
whereas Texas Tech's toughest non-conference opponent is ranked #24.  I just
don't understand the big discrepancy of some computer rankings, particularly
ESPN's BPI.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  2   #  3   #  3   #  1   #  1   +0.7   10.4   +0.04 +/- 0.26   -0.05 +/- 0.20
Texas Tech     # 39   #  8   # 44   # 42   # 29   +0.4    7.7   +0.15 +/- 0.19   -0.08 +/- 0.16
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  1  #  3   #  4   #  3   #  2  #  1    #  2    #  2   #  9   #  1   #  7
Texas Tech     # 29  #  9   # 38   #  7   # 52  # 25    # 26    # 30   #  4   # 23   #  5
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  2   #  2   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.145   24-4     #     #   
Texas Tech     # 29   # 28   # 39   # 29   # 24   # 28   # 28   0.882   18-9     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  #  8    #  1  # 16    #  8  # 57    #  3  #  7    #  6  #  7    #  1  #  4
Texas Tech     # 28  #  3    # 38  #  3    # 37  #  3    # 45  #  3    # 37  # 27    # 31  #  6

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #309 Northern Colorado          109  72   +34.49    +2.51
NEUT   #  1 Michigan State              73  79    -0.67    -5.33
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 52 UCLA                        92  73    +9.85    +9.15
NEUT   # 18 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +3.94    +3.06
HOME   #281 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +31.46    +1.54
HOME   #170 Harvard                     75  69   +24.17   -18.17
HOME   #303 Holy Cross                  92  59   +33.55    -0.55
HOME   # 66 Oregon State                82  67   +14.78    +0.22
HOME   #159 Montana                     88  46   +23.05   +18.95
AWAY   # 60 San Diego State             70  57    +7.64    +5.36
HOME   #102 UC Irvine                   78  53   +17.77    +7.23
HOME   # 31 Baylor                     102  74    +9.64   +18.36
HOME   #  7 Oklahoma                   109 106    +4.39    -1.39
AWAY   # 44 Texas Tech                  69  59    +5.65    +4.35
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia               63  74    -2.50    -8.50
HOME   #125 TCU                         70  63   +20.41   -13.41
AWAY   # 76 Oklahoma State              67  86    +9.41   -28.41
HOME   # 34 Texas                       76  67    +9.96    -0.96
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  72  85    +2.02   -15.02
HOME   # 10 Kentucky                    90  84    +5.55    +0.45
HOME   # 46 Kansas State                77  59   +12.49    +5.51
AWAY   #125 TCU                         75  56   +13.75    +5.25
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               75  65    +4.16    +5.84
AWAY   #  7 Oklahoma                    76  72    -2.27    +6.27
HOME   # 76 Oklahoma State              94  67   +16.07   +10.93
AWAY   # 46 Kansas State                72  63    +5.83    +3.17
AWAY   # 31 Baylor                      66  60    +2.98    +3.02
HOME   # 44 Texas Tech                           +12.31             0.911
AWAY   # 34 Texas                                 +3.30             0.622
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                            +8.68             0.825

Here is Texas Tech's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #151 High Point                  77  73   +13.73    -9.73
NEUT   # 24 Utah                        63  73    -3.50    -6.50
NEUT   # 78 Mississippi State           74  72    +3.91    -1.91
NEUT   #132 Minnesota                   81  68    +8.93    +4.07
HOME   # 71 Hawai'i                     82  74    +6.70    +1.30
HOME   #207 Sam Houston State           71  56   +17.44    -2.44
HOME   #224 Tennessee-Martin            68  49   +18.55    +0.45
HOME   # 86 South Dakota State          79  67    +7.62    +4.38
HOME   #346 Ark.-Pine Bluff             94  54   +31.41    +8.59
HOME   # 63 Little Rock                 65  53    +5.68    +6.32
HOME   # 98 Richmond                    85  70    +8.43    +6.57
HOME   # 34 Texas                       82  74    +0.98    +7.02
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  69  76    -6.96    -0.04
HOME   #  3 Kansas                      59  69    -5.65    -4.35
AWAY   # 46 Kansas State                70  83    -3.15    -9.85
HOME   # 31 Baylor                      60  63    +0.66    -3.66
AWAY   #125 TCU                         76  69    +4.77    +2.23
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               76  80    -4.82    +0.82
AWAY   #  7 Oklahoma                    67  91   -11.25   -12.75
AWAY   # 62 Arkansas                    68  75    -1.14    -5.86
HOME   # 76 Oklahoma State              63  61    +7.09    -5.09
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       59  69    -5.68    -4.32
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  85  82    -0.30    +3.30
AWAY   # 31 Baylor                      84  66    -6.00   +24.00
HOME   #  7 Oklahoma                    65  63    -4.59    +6.59
AWAY   # 76 Oklahoma State              71  61    +0.43    +9.57
HOME   #125 TCU                         83  79   +11.43    -7.43
AWAY   #  3 Kansas                               -12.31             0.089
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia                        -11.48             0.111
HOME   # 46 Kansas State                          +3.51             0.674