Big 12 projection, Round 15

Texas squeaked by Kansas State in Manhattan while Iowa State couldn't hang with
the Mountaineers in Morgantown, and as a result, Texas takes over fifth place
while Iowa State slips into sixth place.  Baylor retains fourth place by 0.003
wins over Texas.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  3  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95  12.20  12.36  12.85  13.53  13.64  13.93  14.36   12  3   TT  (Sa)   KU  by 12.3
#  7  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94  13.83  12.86  12.96  12.26  11.50  12.22  12.31   10  5  @UT  (Sa)   OU  by  2.3   projected road win
#  6  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18  13.50  13.78  13.33  13.44  12.80  12.01  12.25   10  5  @OSU (Sa)   WV  by  8.5   projected road win
# 29  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97  10.22   9.99  10.59   9.60  10.10  10.82  10.39    9  6  @TCU (Sa)   BU  by  7.5   projected road win
# 33  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05  10.13  10.35  10.25   9.92  10.58   9.85  10.39    9  6   OU  (Sa)   
# 22  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09  10.49  10.85  10.17  10.53  10.03  10.08   9.87    8  7   KSU (Sa)   ISU by  7.2
# 45  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77   5.96   5.74   6.46   7.47   8.24   8.81   8.87    8  7  @KU  (Sa)   
# 46  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47   6.11   7.11   6.41   5.90   6.24   5.96   5.42    4 11  @ISU (Sa)   
# 76  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27   5.15   4.72   4.06   4.46   4.33   3.83   3.73    3 12   WV  (Sa)   
#124  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31   2.41   2.24   2.92   2.89   2.54   2.49   2.41    2 13   BU  (Sa)   

Your truly took honors for best prognostications in Round 15.  Greenfield retains
the season lead, with Real Time bringing up the rear.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           2          1+           1           2     1     2     +     1     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
KSU over UT      0.9   3.0   1.1   0.0   2.5  -1.0   5.0   0.4   1.5   1.6   3.0   1.6   0.7   2.6  -1.0   5.4     -1     1.9   4.0   2.1   1.0   3.5   0.0   6.0   1.4   2.5   2.6   4.0   2.6   1.7   3.6   0.0   6.4
KU  over BU      2.7   2.0   1.4   2.0  -1.5   2.0  -2.0   2.8   2.5   1.2  -1.0   0.4   3.2   1.3   3.9   1.6      6     3.3   4.0   4.6   4.0   7.5   4.0   8.0   3.2   3.5   4.8   7.0   5.6   2.8   4.7   2.1   4.4
WV  over ISU     7.7   6.0   3.6   5.5   2.5   5.0   8.0   7.5   5.7   3.9   3.0   7.7   8.6  10.5   5.8  10.8     10     2.3   4.0   6.4   4.5   7.5   5.0   2.0   2.5   4.3   6.1   7.0   2.3   1.4   0.5   4.2   0.8
TT  over TCU    11.9  14.0  12.7  11.5  17.0  11.5  18.0  12.1  11.9  11.3  13.0  11.4  12.6  14.5  17.1  14.3      4     7.9  10.0   8.7   7.5  13.0   7.5  14.0   8.1   7.9   7.3   9.0   7.4   8.6  10.5  13.1  10.3
OU  over OSU    14.5  16.0  13.6  15.5  18.0  15.5  24.0  13.6  15.1  14.2  13.0  16.2  15.4  17.2  12.0  17.0     22     7.5   6.0   8.4   6.5   4.0   6.5   2.0   8.4   6.9   7.8   9.0   5.8   6.6   4.8  10.0   5.0

total this round                                                                                                         22.9  28.0  30.2  23.5  35.5  23.0  32.0  23.6  25.1  28.6  36.0  23.7  21.1  24.1  29.4  26.9
previous total                                                                                                          490.9 513.0 502.6 475.0 535.5 484.5 561.0 500.6 505.9 519.8 548.0 503.9 507.9 511.2 530.1 513.1
cumulative                                                                                                              513.8 541.0 532.8 498.5 571.0 507.5 593.0 524.2 531.0 548.4 584.0 527.6 529.0 535.3 559.5 540.0
per game (total of 75)                                                                                                    6.9   7.2   7.1   6.6   7.6   6.8   7.9   7.0   7.1   7.3   7.8   7.0   7.1   7.1   7.5   7.2

Only one road win was projected for Round 15, and it did materialize for the Jayhawks.
However, Texas picked up a road win in Manhattan, not terribly unexpected considering
the projected margin was so small.  Three road wins are projected for Round 16.

Road wins (27 out of 75)                Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
5 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU KSU UT    0 Kansas                                +5 Kansas        
5 Kansas          TT  TCU OU  KSU BU    1 Oklahoma        KU                    +2 Oklahoma      
4 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT  ISU       1 Texas           BU                    +2 Texas         
3 Iowa State      KSU TCU OSU           2 Iowa State      BU  WV                +2 West Virginia 
3 Oklahoma        OSU BU  WV            2 West Virginia   UT  OU                +1 Baylor        
3 Texas           WV  BU  KSU           3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV            +1 Iowa State    
3 Texas Tech      TCU BU  OSU           4 Baylor          OU  UT  TT  KU         0 Texas Tech    
1 Kansas State    TCU                   4 Oklahoma State  OU  BU  ISU TT        -4 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                        5 Kansas State    WV  ISU BU  KU  UT    -4 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                   5 TCU             WV  TT  ISU KU  KSU   -5 TCU           

Self has been shortening practices in an effort to keep legs fresh.  Makes
sense.  Which raises an interesting hypothesis:  Do you suppose West Virginia's
pressing style is wearing the Mountaineers out?  Their trend is at the bottom
of the conference by a wide margin, and it is statistically very significant.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.15    Texas Tech        7.72    Texas           +0.25 +/- 0.25    Iowa State      +0.19 +/- 0.13
Kansas          +0.72    Kansas State      7.90    Texas Tech      +0.15 +/- 0.19    Oklahoma State  +0.09 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma        +0.71    Iowa State        8.07    Kansas          +0.04 +/- 0.26    Oklahoma        +0.04 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech      +0.41    Oklahoma          8.83    Kansas State    +0.02 +/- 0.19    Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.13
Iowa State      +0.20    TCU               9.18    TCU             -0.03 +/- 0.22    Texas           -0.01 +/- 0.21
Baylor          +0.16    Oklahoma State   10.21    Oklahoma State  -0.09 +/- 0.24    Kansas          -0.05 +/- 0.20
Texas           +0.10    Kansas           10.37    Oklahoma        -0.13 +/- 0.22    TCU             -0.08 +/- 0.14
Kansas State    -0.11    Texas            10.74    Iowa State      -0.14 +/- 0.19    Texas Tech      -0.08 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma State  -0.11    West Virginia    10.86    Baylor          -0.15 +/- 0.29    Baylor          -0.09 +/- 0.19
TCU             -0.25    Baylor           11.72    West Virginia   -0.52 +/- 0.24    West Virginia   -0.54 +/- 0.17

Everybody is now in the Top 25 in strength of schedule.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Iowa State      82.75    West Virginia   67.11    Iowa State      158.96    West Virginia   +12.46    Texas           81.64 ( 1)
Oklahoma        81.70    Oklahoma State  67.46    Oklahoma        152.26    Kansas          +11.59    Kansas          81.10 ( 3)
Kansas          80.15    Kansas State    67.75    Kansas          148.70    Oklahoma        +11.15    Iowa State      81.08 ( 4)
West Virginia   79.57    Texas           68.43    Baylor          147.04    Iowa State       +6.54    Oklahoma        80.72 ( 5)
Baylor          76.59    Kansas          68.56    West Virginia   146.68    Baylor           +6.15    Texas Tech      79.99 ( 9)
Texas Tech      72.59    Texas Tech      69.85    Texas Tech      142.44    Texas            +3.57    Kansas State    79.97 (10)
Texas           72.00    Baylor          70.44    Texas           140.43    Texas Tech       +2.74    West Virginia   79.88 (11)
Kansas State    70.32    Oklahoma        70.56    Kansas State    138.07    Kansas State     +2.57    Baylor          79.61 (14)
Oklahoma State  67.68    TCU             70.82    TCU             137.68    Oklahoma State   +0.21    TCU             79.25 (20)
TCU             66.86    Iowa State      76.21    Oklahoma State  135.14    TCU              -3.96    Oklahoma State  78.92 (25)