predictions for Baylor game

ADVANCE WARNING:  This Saturday, I'll be getting on an airplane to go
see the total solar eclipse over Indonesia.  If I'm not in panic mode
getting ready for the trip, I'll post the usual predictions for the Texas
Tech game, but don't count on game predictions for the Big Monday Texas
game and the season finale with Iowa State.  Also, I'll still be on travel
during the Big 12 tournament, so there might not be any game predictions
for those either.  If I have Internet access and the time, I'll try to
do what I can, but if you'll suffer from withdrawal symptoms, see your
doctor for a prescription now.

Today's game is currently the most difficult one remaining on the
schedule, though the final road tilt in Austin is nearly comparable.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 2.7 point margin, with a 59.4 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 148.7 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 76, Baylor 73.  Kansas has
been playing 0.7 points above expectation, while Baylor has been playing
0.2 points above expectation, which means that the Jayhawks could be a
3.2 point favorite.  Seven straight above-expectation performances have
finally negated the five straight below-expectation performances that
preceded them, and the trend for Kansas is now marginally positive, though
not statistically significant.  The Bears have a negative trend, but also
not statistically significant.  Both teams have a negative mental toughness
rating, comparable in both size and uncertainty.  Taken at face value, the
margin for Kansas becomes 3.9 points.  Baylor is the least consistent team
in the Big 12.  The Bears have played 10 out of 26 Division I games above
expectation by more than 2.7 points, which would be enough to win today's
game.  That corresponds to just a 38.5 percent probability of winning.
However, 3 of those 10 have been in their last 4 games.  Meanwhile, Kansas
has played more than 2.7 points below expectation in just 6 of their 26
Division I games, which would be enough to lose today's game, though the
last time it happened was 8 games ago.  That corresponds to a 23.1 percent
probability of losing.  Those average to a 30.8 percent probability of
Kansas losing, a fair bit more optimistic than the probability based on
the Sagarin Predictor ratings shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 2.0 point margin, with a 56 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 79, Baylor 77.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 0.3 units, as well
as the better adjusted defense by 6.6 units, which combine to a 6.9 units
advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 68.8 possessions per game, the
margin for the Jayhawks works out to 4.7 points on a neutral court.  Given
Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 1.4 point
favorite.  The ratings suggest a final score of Kansas 75, Baylor 74.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 2.0 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
of 76 to 74.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five
of eight categories; Baylor dishes more assists per game, has a higher
offensive rebound percentage, and attempts marginally more free throws per
field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in four of seven categories; Baylor grabs more offensive rebounds per game,
steals more balls per game, and marginally commits fewer fouls per game.
Kansas is now Greenfield's #1 team.

Dunkel makes Kansas a 1.5 point underdog, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 2.0 points in favor of Kansas, so he is obviously picking Baylor against
the spread.  With a total points projection of 156, the implied final score
is Kansas 77, Baylor 79.  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 150.0,
which would imply a final score of Kansas 76, Baylor 74.

Real Time makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog with a final score of
Kansas 76, Baylor 78.  The probability of winning the game is given
as 45.8 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.  Guess
who is back on top of the RPI rankings?

Dolphin gives Kansas a 2.8 point margin, with a 59.4 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 77, Baylor 75, with
the rounding working in the Bears' favor.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 8.0 units in favor of Kansas, but we
need to calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling
factor of 0.726 just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick
with that value for consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 5.8 point
favorite on a neutral court, but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point
home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 2.5 point favorite.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 4.5 points in favor
of Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and Kansas is a 1.2 point favorite.

Seven Overtimes once again makes Kansas a 1.0 point underdog, corresponding
to a 47 percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score
is 74 to 75.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 0.4 point margin.  The Jayhawks are his #1 team.

DPPI gives Kansas a 1.6 point margin.

There are nine common opponents, eight from the conference, plus Vanderbilt,
three of which Baylor has played twice (Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Texas),
three of which Kansas has played twice (TCU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia),
and two of which both have played twice (Oklahoma State and Kansas State),
in which case I'm using only the home-home and road-road permutations, plus
the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us 18 scores to compare:

KU   +7 Van neutral ( +7 neutral)
BU   +2 Van at home ( -2 neutral)
KU   +5 BU  on road ( +9 neutral)

KU  +27 OSU at home (+23 neutral)     KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)
BU  +17 OSU at home (+13 neutral)     BU   +4 OSU on road ( +8 neutral)
KU   +6 BU  on road (+10 neutral)     KU  -27 BU  on road (-23 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)     KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
BU   +5 ISU on road ( +9 neutral)     BU   +9 ISU at home ( +5 neutral)
KU  -22 BU  on road (-18 neutral)     KU  -18 BU  on road (-14 neutral)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU  +19 TCU on road (+23 neutral)
BU  +28 TCU at home (+24 neutral)     BU  +28 TCU at home (+24 neutral)
KU  -25 BU  on road (-21 neutral)     KU   -5 BU  on road ( -1 neutral)

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)     KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
BU   +3 TT  on road ( +7 neutral)     BU  -18 TT  at home (-22 neutral)
KU   +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral)     KU  +32 BU  on road (+36 neutral)

KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)     KU   +9 KSU on road (+13 neutral)
BU   +7 KSU at home ( +3 neutral)     BU  +10 KSU on road (+14 neutral)
KU   +7 BU  on road (+11 neutral)     KU   -5 BU  on road ( -1 neutral)

KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)     KU   +4 OU  on road ( +8 neutral)
BU  -10 OU  at home (-14 neutral)     BU  -10 OU  at home (-14 neutral)
KU   +9 BU  on road (+13 neutral)     KU  +18 BU  on road (+22 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)     KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
BU   -8 UT  at home (-12 neutral)     BU  +14 UT  on road (+18 neutral)
KU  +13 BU  on road (+17 neutral)     KU  -17 BU  on road (-13 neutral)

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)     KU  +10 WV  at home ( +6 neutral)
BU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)     BU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
KU   -4 BU  on road (  0 neutral)     KU   +9 BU  on road (+13 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
KU  +20 BU  on road (+24 neutral)

Ten of the comparisons favor Kansas, while eight favor Baylor.  The average,
however, favors Baylor by 0.06 points, though the standard deviation is a
whopping 16.7 points.

Players to watch:  Guard Lester Medford plays the most minutes, dishes the
most assists, and is their leading thief.  Forward Taurean Prince is their
leading scorer, but also commits the most turnovers.  Forward Rico Gathers
gathers (pun intended) the most rebounds.  Forward Johnathan Motley blocks
the most shots, but also commits the most personal fouls.

The average of the various prognostications is 1.3 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 75, Baylor 74, in agreement with
Pomeroy.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  3   #  5   #  4   #  2   #  2   +0.7   10.6   +0.02 +/- 0.28   -0.07 +/- 0.20
Baylor         # 24   # 19   # 28   # 24   # 18   +0.2   11.9   -0.13 +/- 0.32   -0.09 +/- 0.20
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  7   #  4   #  7   #  1  #  2    #  5    #  2   # 19   #  1   # 10
Baylor         # 16  # 22   # 25   # 19   # 28  # 18    # 37    # 17   # 32   # 20   # 17
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  2   #  3   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.115   23-4     #     #   
Baylor         # 14   # 14   # 29   # 22   # 20   # 17   # 17   0.914   20-7     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  #  8    #  2  # 18    #  9  # 64    #  3  # 12    #  3  #  8    #  1  #  6
Baylor         # 22  # 27    # 24  # 40    # 33  # 52    # 38  # 30    # 42  # 43    # 19  #  9

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #312 Northern Colorado          109  72   +34.61    +2.39
NEUT   #  1 Michigan State              73  79    -0.57    -5.43
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 48 UCLA                        92  73    +9.35    +9.65
NEUT   # 19 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +4.14    +2.86
HOME   #284 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +31.55    +1.45
HOME   #178 Harvard                     75  69   +24.07   -18.07
HOME   #299 Holy Cross                  92  59   +33.06    -0.06
HOME   # 65 Oregon State                82  67   +14.65    +0.35
HOME   #166 Montana                     88  46   +23.22   +18.78
AWAY   # 62 San Diego State             70  57    +7.79    +5.21
HOME   #103 UC Irvine                   78  53   +18.12    +6.88
HOME   # 28 Baylor                     102  74    +9.32   +18.68
HOME   #  7 Oklahoma                   109 106    +4.42    -1.42
AWAY   # 45 Texas Tech                  69  59    +5.27    +4.73
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia               63  74    -2.62    -8.38
HOME   #128 TCU                         70  63   +20.47   -13.47
AWAY   # 75 Oklahoma State              67  86    +9.00   -28.00
HOME   # 34 Texas                       76  67    +9.78    -0.78
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  72  85    +1.84   -14.84
HOME   # 11 Kentucky                    90  84    +5.63    +0.37
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                77  59   +12.33    +5.67
AWAY   #128 TCU                         75  56   +13.83    +5.17
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               75  65    +4.02    +5.98
AWAY   #  7 Oklahoma                    76  72    -2.22    +6.22
HOME   # 75 Oklahoma State              94  67   +15.64   +11.36
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                72  63    +5.69    +3.31
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                                +2.68             0.594
HOME   # 45 Texas Tech                           +11.91             0.901
AWAY   # 34 Texas                                 +3.14             0.616
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                            +8.48             0.817

Here is Baylor's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 87 Stephen F. Austin           97  55   +10.50   +31.50
AWAY   # 24 Oregon                      67  74    -3.54    -3.46
HOME   #252 Jackson State               77  60   +23.24    -6.24
HOME   #331 Savannah State             100  61   +30.49    +8.51
HOME   #248 Arkansas State              94  72   +23.04    -1.04
HOME   #342 Prairie View A&M            80  41   +32.83    +6.17
HOME   # 19 Vanderbilt                  69  67    +1.46    +0.54
HOME   #316 Northwestern State          75  62   +28.74   -15.74
Div2        Hardin-Simmons             104  59
AWAY   # 21 Texas A&M                   61  80    -5.05   -13.95
HOME   #118 New Mexico State            85  70   +13.76    +1.24
HOME   #199 Texas Southern              72  59   +19.72    -6.72
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                      74 102    -9.32   -18.68
HOME   # 75 Oklahoma State              79  62    +9.64    +7.36
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  94  89    -4.16    +9.16
HOME   #128 TCU                         82  54   +14.47   +13.53
AWAY   # 45 Texas Tech                  63  60    -0.73    +3.73
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                79  72    +6.33    +0.67
HOME   #  7 Oklahoma                    72  82    -1.58    -8.42
AWAY   # 75 Oklahoma State              69  65    +3.00    +1.00
HOME   # 78 Georgia                     83  73    +9.85    +0.15
HOME   # 34 Texas                       59  67    +3.78   -11.78
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia               69  80    -8.62    -2.38
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                82  72    -0.31   +10.31
HOME   # 45 Texas Tech                  66  84    +5.91   -23.91
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                 100  91    +2.48    +6.52
AWAY   # 34 Texas                       78  64    -2.86   +16.86
HOME   #  4 Kansas                                -2.68             0.406
AWAY   #128 TCU                                   +7.83             0.768
AWAY   #  7 Oklahoma                              -8.22             0.217
HOME   #  5 West Virginia                         -1.98             0.431