Next year

At the risk of looking ahead (at a 97% chance of a 12th Big 12 title, maybe that's a little bit justified) and wondering how K-State could be so tough with essentially a brand new team of players I've never hear of, I decided to see how likely they, and the other league teams, are to be a threat to #13.
Following is the number of seniors for each team who are starters or high level subs (not counting Forte at OSU and Long at ISU who might qualify for medical redshirts. I assume no one in the league leaves early.
KU 2 Ellis and Traylor
BU 3 Gathers, Medford, Prince
ISU 3 McKay, Nader, Niang (maybe Long)
KSU 2 Edwards, Hurt
OU 4 Hield, Spangler, Cousins, Walker
OSU 2 Newberry, Olivier (maybe Forte)
TCU 1 Abron
TU 5 Felix, Lammert, Ibeh, Holland, Ridley
TT 2 Williams, Gotcher
WV 2 Holton, Paige
To put the loses in perspective, here are the % points and rebounds lost
KU 23% of points and 24% of rebounds Both averaged 23.5%
BU 47% of points and 47% of rebounds Both averaged 47%
ISU 54% of points and 56% of rebounds Both averaged 55% (Long not included)
KSU 27% of points and 28% of rebounds Both averaged 27.5%
OU 64% of points and 54% of rebounds Both averaged 59%
OSU 28% of points and 22% of rebounds Both averaged 25% (Forte not included)
TCU 7% of points and 11% of rebounds Both averaged 9%
TU 34% of points and 42% of rebounds Both averaged 38% (Ridley not included)
TT 30% of points and 20% of rebounds Both averaged 25%
WV 29% of points and 28% of rebounds Both averaged 28.5%
Two things stand out. 1. We lose less than anybody (except TCU which had very little to lose) 2. There could be a major changing of the guard next year with perennial also rans like KSU, OSU and Texas Tech perhaps being our major threats along with West Virginia. Everything is changing except the Jayhawks being in position to win #13.

Great stuff Doc. Welcome to nerd club. NIce analysis.

Very interesting because this KU team is so experienced I thought it would be worse than that.

I was doing the same kind of thinking. Glad you guys put it all together. Right now, we have an EXCELLENT back court. I can't imagine that Frank and Devonte will regress going into next year. Selden, assuming he can rekindle his mojo, has a huge upper limit. Bragg should be ready, Lucas will be better, and we've got Diallo, Svi, Brannen, and a pile of talent ready to step up.

I'm going to bet that we're a preseason top 5 team with who we've got.

Experienced Lucas at 6' 10" and 240. Throw in Udoka Azubuike at 6' 11" and 270# and add 20# of muscle to Diallo and Bragg and we won't hurt in the front court for strength and athleticism either. By the way, Udoka will enroll at age 17. Maybe 1-2" to grow like Embiid?

Forgot Dwight Coleby 6' 9" 240. No, we won't get pushed around next year.

Watching yesterday with a UCONN fan buddy, I remarked, "take a look at Bragg and Diallo. Now imagine them with 10-15 pounds of extra muscle slapped on them."

Hudy will have a field day with those guys. Imagine Diallo as a shot blocker, AND with some beef on him...scary.

If Selden comes back, our 'small' rotation would be Mason, Graham, Selden, Greene, Svi, Vick and possibly a freshman wing. That is an amazing group, one which will dominate the league and possibly the country. Vick, in my opinion, has huge upside, with his size and shooting ability. If Diallo returns, our bigs will be equally terrific. Lucas will start, but the rest of the group will rotate in and out, and there won't be anyone who will be able to handle our size or our depth. Add one more recruit, like Josh Jackson, and we'll be pre-season ranked #1.

According the scouts I know, Selden is not ready for the NBA. His handles are not good enough, and his periodic 'fugues' don't impress people at all. Even with holes in his game, his inconsistent effort and/or focus really concern the NBA people. He's got the shot for the NBA, but he's still no better than a 2nd round pick, even with a relatively weak draft. Selden will go to the pre-draft workouts and combine, but unless he blows people away, he's going to come back next year, or possibly go to Europe. I don't know what his long term goals are, but if he wants the NBA more than the money, he'll come back for another run, and try to work out the flaws in his game and hopefully work his way into a 1st round pick. At worst, he goes to Europe next year, makes a ton of money, and MAYBE gets to fulfill his dream after a couple of years overseas.

If Selden replicated the UK game throughout the NCAAs he would almost definitely get 1st round consideration. It's clear he has the ability and the athleticism. His skills are still in question, and his mental discipline. For an NBA team to risk a guaranteed contract on a guy who is not going to be a superstar, and who is not a 5, they have to have absolute confidence that they will get everything the player has, each and every game. Right now nobody can predict what Selden will give us from game to game, and this is college. Would you wager anything on a 20 point and 5 assist game from him tomorrow night?

I just recalled a comment made by Miles Simon during the KSU game about Selden's shooting form. He said that Selden wasn't using his legs on his long jumpers, which he found odd, and which he believes is the reason for Selden's inconsistency as far as the 3 is conce4rned during the latter part of the season. I find it strange that he still hasn't been able to shoot his 3s with good form and consistent form.