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Big 12 Odds - KU heavy favorite

  • CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 9 months ago #4301 by CorpusJayhawk
With 5 games left KU has a better than 50% chance of winning the Big 12 outright (58% actually) and an 83% chance of winning at least a share. If things go our way today those probabilities will go up quite a bit more. The last two weeks has been about the best 2 week stretch KU has had in many years. Two weeks ago we were in a major funk averaging 15 points below our rating for 5 games in a row. That is about as bad a 5 game stretch as any team has had this year. Oklahoma is currently in a 4 game funk where they are averaging 7.2 points below their rating. But since the 5 game KU funk we have rebounded amazingly (pun intended) winning 5 games in a row and playing above our rating by an average of 4.2 points. More importantly we have improved each of those 5 games. This indicates that KU is very likely improving as a team at just the right time. We are projected to win 13 or 14 games. That means we could likely lose 1 or 2 more games in the Big 12. An OU win today would be huge. OU is effectively eliminated from the Big 12 race with a probability of sharing the title of less than 5%. West Virginia's odds of at least a share of the title are down to 39%. If they lose today that will decrease quite a bit (assuming KU wins). This is an amazing turnaround. Of course I live in OKC and I am surrounded by OU and OSU fans. This has been fun the last couple weeks. Let's hope today is the next step in locking down this Big 12 championship.

-Projected Conference Wins-		
Team        	Wins	
-----------	------	
Kansas      	13.5	
West Virginia	12.6	
Oklahoma     	11.1	
Baylor       	10.4	
Texas        	10.2	
Iowa St.     	10.0	
Texas Tech   	8.2	
Kansas St.   	6.5	
Oklahoma St. 	4.6	
TCU          	2.9	
--Probability of Winning Big 12 Title--		
Team        	Solo	Shared
-----------	------	------
Kansas      	57.8%	83.1%
West Virginia	15.1%	39.3%
Oklahoma    	0.5%	4.6%
Baylor      	0.1%	1.6%
Texas       	0.1%	1.3%
Iowa St.    	0.0%	0.2%
Texas Tech  	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas St.   	0.0%	0.0%
Oklahoma St.	0.0%	0.0%
TCU         	0.0%	0.0%

--KU Schedule-Probability of Winning--		
Opponent   	City        	Prob
-----------	-----------	--------
Baylor      	Lawrence    	100.0%
Oklahoma    	Lawrence    	100.0%
Texas Tech  	Lubbock     	100.0%
West Virginia	Morgantown  	0.0%
TCU         	Lawrence    	100.0%
Oklahoma St. 	Stillwater  	0.0%
Texas       	Lawrence    	100.0%
Iowa St.     	Ames        	0.0%
Kansas St.   	Lawrence    	100.0%
TCU         	Fort Worth  	100.0%
West Virginia	Lawrence    	100.0%
Oklahoma    	Norman      	100.0%
Oklahoma St. 	Lawrence    	100.0%
Kansas St.   	Manhattan   	64.4%
Baylor      	Waco        	56.1%
Texas Tech  	Lawrence    	87.8%
Texas       	Austin      	65.1%
Iowa St.     	Lawrence    	76.8%

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk

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