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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 Odds - KU heavy favorite
- CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 9 months ago #4301
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
With 5 games left KU has a better than 50% chance of winning the Big 12 outright (58% actually) and an 83% chance of winning at least a share. If things go our way today those probabilities will go up quite a bit more. The last two weeks has been about the best 2 week stretch KU has had in many years. Two weeks ago we were in a major funk averaging 15 points below our rating for 5 games in a row. That is about as bad a 5 game stretch as any team has had this year. Oklahoma is currently in a 4 game funk where they are averaging 7.2 points below their rating. But since the 5 game KU funk we have rebounded amazingly (pun intended) winning 5 games in a row and playing above our rating by an average of 4.2 points. More importantly we have improved each of those 5 games. This indicates that KU is very likely improving as a team at just the right time. We are projected to win 13 or 14 games. That means we could likely lose 1 or 2 more games in the Big 12. An OU win today would be huge. OU is effectively eliminated from the Big 12 race with a probability of sharing the title of less than 5%. West Virginia's odds of at least a share of the title are down to 39%. If they lose today that will decrease quite a bit (assuming KU wins). This is an amazing turnaround. Of course I live in OKC and I am surrounded by OU and OSU fans. This has been fun the last couple weeks. Let's hope today is the next step in locking down this Big 12 championship.
-Projected Conference Wins-
Team Wins
----------- ------
Kansas 13.5
West Virginia 12.6
Oklahoma 11.1
Baylor 10.4
Texas 10.2
Iowa St. 10.0
Texas Tech 8.2
Kansas St. 6.5
Oklahoma St. 4.6
TCU 2.9
--Probability of Winning Big 12 Title--
Team Solo Shared
----------- ------ ------
Kansas 57.8% 83.1%
West Virginia 15.1% 39.3%
Oklahoma 0.5% 4.6%
Baylor 0.1% 1.6%
Texas 0.1% 1.3%
Iowa St. 0.0% 0.2%
Texas Tech 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 0.0% 0.0%
TCU 0.0% 0.0%
--KU Schedule-Probability of Winning--
Opponent City Prob
----------- ----------- --------
Baylor Lawrence 100.0%
Oklahoma Lawrence 100.0%
Texas Tech Lubbock 100.0%
West Virginia Morgantown 0.0%
TCU Lawrence 100.0%
Oklahoma St. Stillwater 0.0%
Texas Lawrence 100.0%
Iowa St. Ames 0.0%
Kansas St. Lawrence 100.0%
TCU Fort Worth 100.0%
West Virginia Lawrence 100.0%
Oklahoma Norman 100.0%
Oklahoma St. Lawrence 100.0%
Kansas St. Manhattan 64.4%
Baylor Waco 56.1%
Texas Tech Lawrence 87.8%
Texas Austin 65.1%
Iowa St. Lawrence 76.8%
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk
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