predictions for Kansas State game

ADVANCE WARNING:  A week from today, I'll be getting on an airplane to go
see the total solar eclipse over Indonesia.  If I'm not in panic mode
getting ready for the trip, I'll post the usual predictions for the Texas
Tech game, but don't count on game predictions for the Big Monday Texas
game and the season finale with Iowa State.  Also, I'll still be on travel
during the Big 12 tournament, so there might not be any game predictions
for those either.  If I have Internet access and the time, I'll try to
do what I can, but if you'll suffer from withdrawal symptoms, see your
doctor for a prescription now.

Kansas State may be in eighth place among Big 12 conference teams, but
their three overtime contests could have easily gone in their favor, in
which case their conference record could be 7-6, right up there with
Iowa State.  The Wildcats are not to be taken lightly.  And recent
history has shown that Kansas can indeed come out of Manhattan with a
loss.  The Jayhawks had better be ready to play.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 5.4 point margin, with a 71.5 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 144.1 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 75, Kansas State 69, with
the rounding working in the Jayhawks' favor.  Kansas has been playing
0.7 points above expectation, while Kansas State has been playing 0.1 points
below expectation, which means that the Jayhawks could be a 6.2 point
favorite.  Six straight above-expectation performances have finally negated
the five straight below-expectation performances, and the trend for Kansas
is now marginally positive, though not statistically significant.  The
Wildcats also have a marginally positive trend, a little larger than the
Jayhawks', but also not statistically significant.  Kansas has a negative
mental toughness rating, while Kansas State has a positive rating, but
neither is statistically significant.  Taken at face value, the margin for
Kansas becomes 5.6 points.  The Wildcats are more consistent than the
Jayhawks.  Kansas State has played 6 of their 26 games above expectation
by more than 5.4 points, which would be enough to win today's game.  That
corresponds to a 23 percent chance of winning.  Meanwhile, Kansas has played
6 of their 25 Division I games below expectation by more than 5.4 points,
which would be enough to lose today's game.  That corresponds to a 24 percent
chance of losing.  The average is a 23.5 percent chance of Kansas losing, a
bit more optimistic than the probability based on the Sagarin Predictor
ratings shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, with a 64 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 74, Kansas State 70.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 13.7 units, but
Kansas State has the better adjusted defense by 2.8 units, which combine
to a 10.9 units advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 69.1 possessions
per game, the margin for the Jayhawks works out to 7.5 points on a neutral
court.  Given Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes a
4.2 point favorite.  The ratings suggest a final score of Kansas 73,
Kansas State 69.

I think I caught Greenfield in the middle of an update.  Initially he had
Kansas with a 5.5 point margin, but moments later, it was down to just 5.0
points, although the Vegas Implied final score remained un-updated with
Kansas at 74.5 (you pick the rounding) and Kansas State at 69.  Among the
key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six of eight categories;
Kansas State has a higher offensive rebound percentage and attempts more
free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in four of seven categories; Kansas State holds opponents
to fewer points per game, grabs more offensive rebounds per game, and steals
more balls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas an 8.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 5.5 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With a total
points projection of 135, the implied final score is Kansas 72, Kansas State
63.  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 140.0, which would imply a final
score of Kansas 73, Kansas State 67.

Real Time gives Kansas just a 2.0 point margin with a final score of
Kansas 78, Kansas State 76.  The probability of winning the game is given
as 52.5 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.  Guess
who is back on top of the RPI rankings?

Dolphin gives Kansas a 4.8 point margin, with a 66.4 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 72, Kansas State 68,
with the rounding working in the Wildcats' favor.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 11.5 units in favor of Kansas, but we
need to calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling
factor of 0.726 just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick
with that value for consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas an 8.3 point
favorite on a neutral court, but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point
home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 5.0 point favorite.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 5.4 points in favor
of Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and Kansas is a 2.1 point favorite.

Blasphemy!  Seven Overtimes makes Kansas a 1.0 point underdog, corresponding
to a 47 percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score
is 71 to 72.  The only doubter among the various prognostications shown here.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 3.7 point margin.  The Jayhawks are his #1 team.

DPPI gives Kansas a 4.3 point margin.

There are eight common opponents, all from the conference, one of which
Kansas State has played twice (Baylor), one of which Kansas has played
twice (TCU), and three of which both have played twice (West Virginia,
Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State), in which case I'm using only the home-home
and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us
14 scores to compare:

KU  +10 WV  at home ( +6 neutral)     KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
KSU  -4 WV  at home ( -8 neutral)     KSU -15 WV  on road (-11 neutral)
KU  +10 KSU on road (+14 neutral)     KU    0 KSU on road ( +4 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
KSU  -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral)
KU    0 KSU on road ( +4 neutral)

KU   +4 OU  on road ( +8 neutral)     KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
KSU -10 OU  on road ( -6 neutral)     KSU +11 OU  at home ( +7 neutral)
KU  +10 KSU on road (+14 neutral)     KU  -12 KSU on road ( -8 neutral)

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
KSU +13 TT  at home ( +9 neutral)
KU   +1 KSU on road ( +5 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
KSU -13 ISU at home (-17 neutral)
KU   +4 KSU on road ( +8 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)     KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
KSU  -7 BU  on road ( -3 neutral)     KSU -10 BU  at home (-14 neutral)
KU  +23 KSU on road (+27 neutral)     KU  +34 KSU on road (+38 neutral)

KU  +27 OSU at home (+23 neutral)     KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)
KSU +16 OSU at home (+12 neutral)     KSU  -3 OSU on road ( +1 neutral)
KU   +7 KSU on road (+11 neutral)     KU  -20 KSU on road (-16 neutral)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU  +19 TCU on road (+23 neutral)
KSU +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)     KSU +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)
KU  -19 KSU on road (-15 neutral)     KU   +1 KSU on road ( +5 neutral)

KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)
KU  +10 KSU on road (+14 neutral)

Nine of the comparisons favor Kansas, three favor Kansas State, and two
are a wash.  The average is 3.5 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to watch:  Forward Wesley Iwundu plays the most minutes, scores the
most points, and dishes the most assists, but also commits the most turnovers.
Guard Justin Edwards is their leading rebounder and leading thief.  Forward
D. J. Johnson is their leading shot blocker.  Forward Dean Wade commits the
most personal fouls.  Guard Kamau Stokes is out with a knee injury; he was
playing the third-most minutes on the team and scoring the fourth-most points.

The average of the various prognostications is 4.3 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 74, Kansas State 70, in agreement
with Massey.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  3   #  5   #  4   #  3   #  3   +0.7   10.6   +0.01 +/- 0.30   -0.09 +/- 0.21
Kansas State   # 47   # 13   # 44   # 50   # 49   -0.1    8.2   +0.06 +/- 0.22   +0.04 +/- 0.14
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  7   #  4   #  6   #  2  #  1    #  5    #  2   # 10   #  1   #  7
Kansas State   # 56  # 13   # 44   # 18   # 53  # 26    # 71    # 81   # 24   # 70   # 28
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  2   #  3   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.089   22-4     #     #   
Kansas State   # 58   # 58   # 45   # 69   # 63   # 56   # 56   0.836   15-11    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  2  #  3    #  2  # 19    # 11  # 60    #  5  # 14    #  5  #  8    #  1  #  4
Kansas State   # 70  # 11    # 44  # 11    # 46  # 11    # 43  # 33    # 48  # 34    # 41  #  6

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #317 Northern Colorado          109  72   +34.71    +2.29
NEUT   #  1 Michigan State              73  79    -0.78    -5.22
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 53 UCLA                        92  73    +9.91    +9.09
NEUT   # 19 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +4.02    +2.98
HOME   #287 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +31.52    +1.48
HOME   #173 Harvard                     75  69   +23.82   -17.82
HOME   #299 Holy Cross                  92  59   +32.70    +0.30
HOME   # 64 Oregon State                82  67   +14.56    +0.44
HOME   #165 Montana                     88  46   +23.01   +18.99
AWAY   # 65 San Diego State             70  57    +7.94    +5.06
HOME   #104 UC Irvine                   78  53   +17.84    +7.16
HOME   # 33 Baylor                     102  74    +9.86   +18.14
HOME   #  9 Oklahoma                   109 106    +4.82    -1.82
AWAY   # 48 Texas Tech                  69  59    +5.58    +4.42
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia               63  74    -3.23    -7.77
HOME   #131 TCU                         70  63   +20.59   -13.59
AWAY   # 73 Oklahoma State              67  86    +8.51   -27.51
HOME   # 29 Texas                       76  67    +9.21    -0.21
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  72  85    +1.43   -14.43
HOME   # 11 Kentucky                    90  84    +5.53    +0.47
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                77  59   +12.07    +5.93
AWAY   #131 TCU                         75  56   +13.91    +5.09
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               75  65    +3.45    +6.55
AWAY   #  9 Oklahoma                    76  72    -1.86    +5.86
HOME   # 73 Oklahoma State              94  67   +15.19   +11.81
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                          +5.39             0.715
AWAY   # 33 Baylor                                +3.18             0.613
HOME   # 48 Texas Tech                           +12.26             0.907
AWAY   # 29 Texas                                 +2.53             0.595
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                            +8.11             0.803

Here is Kansas State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #312 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     80  53   +25.59    +1.41
HOME   #126 Columbia                    81  71   +11.57    -1.57
HOME   #214 South Dakota                93  72   +17.57    +3.43
NEUT   #141 Missouri                    66  42    +9.55   +14.45
NEUT   #  8 North Carolina              70  80    -7.41    -2.59
HOME   #281 SC State                    68  66   +22.56   -20.56
AWAY   # 79 Georgia                     68  66    +0.24    +1.76
HOME   #332 Coppin State                83  58   +28.04    -3.04
AWAY   # 20 Texas A&M                   68  78    -7.97    -2.03
HOME   #145 Colorado State              61  56   +13.05    -8.05
HOME   #206 North Dakota                63  49   +17.20    -3.20
HOME   #230 Saint Louis                 75  47   +18.82    +9.18
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               83  87    -5.28    +1.28
AWAY   # 29 Texas                       57  60    -6.20    +3.20
AWAY   #  9 Oklahoma                    76  86   -10.59    +0.59
HOME   # 48 Texas Tech                  83  70    +3.53    +9.47
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  63  76    -0.62   -12.38
AWAY   # 33 Baylor                      72  79    -5.55    -1.45
HOME   # 73 Oklahoma State              89  73    +6.46    +9.54
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia               55  70   -11.96    -3.04
HOME   # 85 Mississippi                 69  64    +7.62    -2.62
AWAY   #  4 Kansas                      59  77   -12.07    -5.93
HOME   #  9 Oklahoma                    80  69    -3.91   +14.91
HOME   # 33 Baylor                      72  82    +1.13   -11.13
AWAY   # 73 Oklahoma State              55  58    -0.22    -2.78
AWAY   #131 TCU                         63  49    +5.18    +8.82
HOME   #  4 Kansas                                -5.39             0.285
HOME   # 29 Texas                                 +0.48             0.520
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                            -7.30             0.187
HOME   #131 TCU                                  +11.86             0.911
AWAY   # 48 Texas Tech                            -3.15             0.345