Big 12 projection, Round 13

Baylor and Iowa State traded fourth and sixth place twice in the last two rounds,
and in this round they faced each other.  Baylor won.  So did they swap places
yet again?  Well, not quite.  Yes, Baylor moved ahead of Iowa State, but Texas
didn't stay in middle, thanks to their huge win over West Virginia.  The Longhorns
moved into fourth place, and Baylor took fifth place marginally over Iowa State.
Texas Tech moved off the bubble with a huge win over Oklahoma.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  4  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95  12.20  12.36  12.85  13.53  13.64   10  3  @KSU (Sa)   KU  by  5.4   projected road win
#  5  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18  13.50  13.78  13.33  13.44  12.80    9  4   OU  (Sa)   WV  by  4.7
#  9  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94  13.83  12.86  12.96  12.26  11.50    8  5  @WV  (Sa)   
# 29  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05  10.13  10.35  10.25   9.92  10.58    8  5   BU  (Sa)   UT  by  4.0
# 33  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97  10.22   9.99  10.59   9.60  10.10    8  5  @UT  (Sa)   
# 22  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09  10.49  10.85  10.17  10.53  10.03    7  6   TCU (Sa)   ISU by 15.8
# 49  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77   5.96   5.74   6.46   7.47   8.24    6  7  @OSU (Sa)   
# 45  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47   6.11   7.11   6.41   5.90   6.24    4  9   KU  (Sa)   
# 74  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27   5.15   4.72   4.06   4.46   4.33    3 10   TT  (Sa)   OSU by  0.4
#131  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31   2.41   2.24   2.92   2.89   2.54    2 11  @ISU (Sa)   

Vegas predicted overtime between Baylor and Iowa State, and overtime it was, yet
the perfect prediction results in a 9 points error in the prediction.  There ought
to be bonus points for such a prediction.  Anyway, Real Time took honors for best
prognostications in Round 13, and by a wide margin.  Sometimes those unorthodox
predictions work out.  Real Time was one of two to pick Texas Tech over Oklahoma,
and although several more picked Texas over West Virginia, Real Time had the most
extreme prediction, and even that fell a point shy of reality.  Greenfield retains
the season lead, while Seven Overtimes is pulling up the rear marginally over Real
Time.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           2          1+                       2     1     1     +     1     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
BU  over ISU     1.1   1.0  -0.4   3.5   4.0   0.0   7.0   0.6   0.5  -1.3   1.0   1.9   0.9   2.8  -1.1   3.3      9     7.9   8.0   9.4   5.5   5.0   9.0   2.0   8.4   8.5  10.3   8.0   7.1   8.1   6.2  10.1   5.7
WV  over UT      3.0   1.0   0.2  -2.0  -4.5  -1.0  -6.0   1.9   2.1   0.9  -3.0   0.8   4.3   2.4  -1.5   5.2     -7    10.0   8.0   7.2   5.0   2.5   6.0   1.0   8.9   9.1   7.9   4.0   7.8  11.3   9.4   5.5  12.2
KSU over TCU     4.5   3.0   3.3   4.5   7.0   4.0  -2.0   4.2   3.7   3.3  -1.0   1.4   4.7   2.8   4.2   4.4     14     9.5  11.0  10.7   9.5   7.0  10.0  16.0   9.8  10.3  10.7  15.0  12.6   9.3  11.2   9.8   9.6
OU  over TT      4.6   3.0   2.8   3.5   8.0   5.0  -2.0   3.1   4.4   3.9  -1.0   3.3   4.9   3.0   0.9   2.6     -2     6.6   5.0   4.8   5.5  10.0   7.0   0.0   5.1   6.4   5.9   1.0   5.3   6.9   5.0   2.9   4.6
KU  over OSU    14.5  15.0  12.5  14.5  13.0  15.0  23.0  13.4  14.6  11.6  13.0  16.4  15.2  17.1  12.8  18.5     27    12.5  12.0  14.5  12.5  14.0  12.0   4.0  13.6  12.4  15.4  14.0  10.6  11.8   9.9  14.2   8.5

total this round                                                                                                         46.5  44.0  46.6  38.0  38.5  44.0  23.0  45.8  46.7  50.2  42.0  43.4  47.4  41.7  42.5  40.6
previous total                                                                                                          386.9 403.0 398.5 377.0 436.0 382.0 464.0 395.3 405.6 412.6 447.0 401.8 403.1 402.7 430.0 405.7
cumulative                                                                                                              433.4 447.0 445.1 415.0 474.5 426.0 487.0 441.1 452.3 462.8 489.0 445.2 450.5 444.4 472.5 446.3
per game (total of 65)                                                                                                    6.7   6.9   6.8   6.4   7.3   6.6   7.5   6.8   7.0   7.1   7.5   6.8   6.9   6.8   7.3   6.9

Two of the three projected road wins in Round 13 failed to materialize, and that
wound up helping Kansas, as both West Virginia and Oklahoma fell on the road.
Just one road win is projected for Round 14, and it's important for Kansas to
see that one happen in Manhattan.

Road wins (21 out of 65)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
4 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU KSU     0 Kansas                                 +3 Kansas        
4 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT  ISU     0 Texas                                  +3 West Virginia 
3 Iowa State      KSU TCU OSU         1 Oklahoma        KU                     +2 Texas         
3 Kansas          TT  TCU OU          1 West Virginia   UT                     +1 Baylor        
2 Oklahoma        OSU BU              2 Iowa State      BU  WV                 +1 Iowa State    
2 Texas           WV  BU              3 Baylor          OU  UT  TT             +1 Oklahoma      
2 Texas Tech      TCU BU              3 Kansas State    WV  ISU BU             -1 Texas Tech    
1 Kansas State    TCU                 3 Oklahoma State  OU  BU  ISU            -2 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                      3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV             -3 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                 5 TCU             WV  TT  ISU KU  KSU    -5 TCU           

Finally, Kansas is back to having a positive trend.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.29    Texas Tech        7.69    Texas           +0.44 +/- 0.26    Iowa State      +0.21 +/- 0.14
Kansas          +0.71    Kansas State      8.16    Texas Tech      +0.20 +/- 0.21    Oklahoma State  +0.13 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma        +0.70    Oklahoma          8.28    Kansas State    +0.06 +/- 0.22    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.14
Texas Tech      +0.43    Iowa State        8.29    Oklahoma State  +0.04 +/- 0.28    Texas           -0.02 +/- 0.21
Iowa State      +0.24    TCU               9.42    Kansas          +0.01 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma        -0.07 +/- 0.17
Texas           +0.16    Oklahoma State   10.34    Iowa State      -0.10 +/- 0.22    Kansas          -0.09 +/- 0.21
Baylor          +0.13    West Virginia    10.38    TCU             -0.18 +/- 0.25    TCU             -0.11 +/- 0.14
Kansas State    -0.09    Texas            10.43    Baylor          -0.30 +/- 0.32    Texas Tech      -0.12 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma State  -0.12    Kansas           10.61    Oklahoma        -0.42 +/- 0.22    Baylor          -0.14 +/- 0.19
TCU             -0.27    Baylor           11.56    West Virginia   -0.48 +/- 0.26    West Virginia   -0.52 +/- 0.16

Half of the Top 10 strengths of schedule are in the Big 12.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Oklahoma        82.36    West Virginia   65.85    Iowa State      157.38    West Virginia   +13.88    Texas           81.25 ( 2)
Iowa State      82.23    Oklahoma State  67.19    Oklahoma        154.12    Kansas          +11.60    Iowa State      80.95 ( 3)
Kansas          80.88    Kansas State    67.31    Kansas          150.16    Oklahoma        +10.60    Oklahoma        80.69 ( 4)
West Virginia   79.73    Texas           68.00    Baylor          148.08    Iowa State       +7.08    Kansas          80.27 ( 6)
Baylor          77.20    Kansas          69.28    West Virginia   145.58    Baylor           +6.32    Texas Tech      80.06 ( 7)
Texas           72.35    TCU             69.69    Texas Tech      142.08    Texas            +4.35    Kansas State    79.27 (13)
Texas Tech      72.24    Texas Tech      69.84    Texas           140.35    Kansas State     +3.46    West Virginia   79.19 (15)
Kansas State    70.77    Baylor          70.88    Kansas State    138.08    Texas Tech       +2.40    Baylor          78.58 (26)
Oklahoma State  68.65    Oklahoma        71.76    Oklahoma State  135.85    Oklahoma State   +1.46    TCU             78.42 (29)
TCU             65.62    Iowa State      75.15    TCU             135.31    TCU              -4.08    Oklahoma State  78.10 (43)