Using PiRate To Determine The Final 4: KU Makes The Cut

The following information was taken from a March 16, 2015 blog post with the title: Bracketnomics 505-The Advanced Level Course In Bracket Pickings

First of all, when reviewing final 4 capable teams don't take the following stats into account: Assists and Assists To Turnover Ratio, Free Throw Shooting, 3-Point Shooting, and teams with only one big star or two really good players.

Fortunately, for those of you taking the time to read this post; I have already done all the homework for you. I ran all the numbers for the current Ken Pom top 20 as I figured that would be a great starting point.

• The only teams who meet all the 5 criteria below (that is FG% Margin of +7.5% or better, average scoring margin of +8 or better, rebound margin of +5 or better, positive turnover margin, and an R+T Margin of +15 or better are Kentucky and Kansas. That doesn't mean they are the favorites to cut down the nets, it just means they meet all the qualifications of previous champions.
• The teams with 4 out of the 5 requirements are: Michigan State, Purdue, Arizona, North Carolina, Xavier, and West Virginia.
• The teams with 3 out of the 5 requirements are: Virginia, Villanova, and Wichita State
• The teams with 2 out of the 5 requirements are: Iowa State, Iowa, Miami FL, Duke, and Oregon.
• The team with 1 out of the 5 requirements is: Oklahoma

[/ul] TL;DR Based on all the information I've complied my final 4 prediction right now is Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Kentucky. If we use Joe Lunardi's bracketology seeds right now that means a 1, 3, 1, and 4 in the final four. My championship game would be Kansas vs Michigan State with Michigan State having a slight edge. What impresses me most about Michigan State is out of all the contenders they have the highest field goal margin at +10.9, the highest average scoring margin at +16, and the highest R+T Marign at 23.75, and they have Denzel Valentine. The only stat out of the five that these miss is they have a -2.5 turnover margin. They turn the ball over more than their opponents.

• Michigan State is 3rd in Ken Pom adj offensive efficiency, 27th in Ken Pom adj defensive efficiency, 7th in offensive efficiency, 12th in defensive efficiency, 12th in effective field goal %, 3rd in opponent effective field goal %, and 2nd in average scoring margin.
• Kansas is 5th in Ken Pom adj offensive efficiency, 28th in Ken Pom adj defensive efficiency, 16th in offensive efficiency, 41st in defensive efficiency, 20th in effective field goal %, 43rd in opponent effective field goal %, and 12 in average scoring margin.

[/ul]Excerpt from the blog post:

For 15 years, the PiRate Ratings have relied on specific back-tested data that showed us what stats were important in selecting Final Four teams. We looked back in history to see how previous Final Four teams dominated in certain statistical areas while not dominating in other areas. Here is what we found.

1. Scoring Margin

For general bracket picking, look for teams that outscored their opponents by an average of 8 or more points per game. Over 85% of the Final Four teams since the 1950’s outscored their opponents by an average of 8 or more points per game.

More than 80% of the final four teams in the last 50 years outscored their opponents by double digit points per game. When you find a team with an average scoring margin in excess of 15 points per game, and said team is in one of the six power conferences, then you have a team that will advance deep into the tournament.

2. Field Goal Percentage Differential

Take each team’s field goal percentage minus their defensive field goal percentage to calculate this statistic. Look for teams that have a +7.5% or better margin.

This statistic holds strong in back-tests of 50 years. Even when teams won the tournament with less than 7.5% field goal percentage margins, for the most part, these teams just barely missed (usually in the 5.5 to 7.5% range). In the years of the 64 to 68-team tournament, this stat has become a more accurate predictor. In the 21st Century, the teams with field goal percentage margins in the double digits have dominated the field. For example, if you see a team that shoots better than 48% and allows 38% or less, that team is going to be very hard to beat in large arenas with weird sight lines.

3. Rebound Margin

This statistic holds up all the way back to the early days of basketball, in fact as far back to the days when rebounds were first recorded. The teams that consistently control the boards are the ones that advance past the first week in the tournament. What we’re looking for here are teams that out-rebound their opposition by five or more per game. In the opening two rounds, a difference of three or more is just as important.

There are complete rebounding statistics back to 1954, and in the 61 NCAA Tournaments between 1954 and 2014, the National Champion outrebounded their opponents 61 times! Yes, no team with a negative rebound margin has ever won the title.

The reason this statistic becomes even more important in mid-March is that teams do not always shoot as well in the NCAA Tournament for a variety of reasons (better defense, abnormal sight lines and unfamiliar gymnasiums, nerves, new rims and nets, more physical play with the refs allowing it, etc.). The teams that can consistently get offensive put-backs are the teams that go on scoring runs in these games. The teams that prevent the opposition from getting offensive rebounds, holding them to one shot per possession, have a huge advantage.

4. Turnover Margin & Steals Per Game

Turnover margin can give a weaker rebounding team a chance to advance. Any positive turnover margin is good here. If a team cannot meet the rebounding margin listed above, they can get by if they have an excellent turnover margin. Not all turnover margins are the same though. A team that forces a high number of turnovers by way of steals is better than a team that forces the same amount of turnovers without steals. A steal is better than a defensive rebound, because most of the time, a steal leads to a fast-break basket or foul. When a team steals the ball, they are already facing their basket, and the defense must turn around and chase. Many steals occur on the perimeter where the ball-hawking team has a numbers advantage.

The criteria to look for here is a positive turnover margin if the team out-rebounds its opposition by three or more; a turnover margin of three or better if the team out-rebounds its opposition by less than three; and a turnover margin of five or more if the team does not out-rebound its opponents. Give more weight to teams that average 7.5 or more steals per game, and give much more weight to teams that average double figure steals per game. A team that averages more than 10 steals per game will get a lot of fast-break baskets and foul shots. In NCAA Tournament play, one quick spurt can be like a three-run homer in the World Series, and teams that either steal the ball or control the boards are the ones who will get that spurt.

5. The All-Important R+T Margin: Consider this the basketball equivalent of baseball’s OPS (On Base % + Slugging %) or even better, the “MoneyballFormula.” The formula has undergone a couple of changes in recent years, including this season, and we think it will be slightly adjusted in the future based on changes in how the game is played.

The R+T Formula for 2015 is: (R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T, where R is rebounding margin, S is average steals per game (Opp S is opponents steals per game), and T is turnover margin. The numbers are all rounded to one digit.

Look for teams with R+T ratings at 15 or above. These are the teams that will get several additional opportunities to score points and go on scoring runs that put opponents away

When this stat is 7.5 to 15, you have a team that can overcome a few other liabilities to win and cut down the nets in Indianapolis if they don’t run into a team from the 15+ R+T range with similar shooting percentages and defense.

When this stat is 4.5 to 7.5, you have a team good enough to win early and get to the Sweet 16 or lite 8 but not advance past that round, unless said team has a large field goal percentage difference margin.

When this stat is 0 to 4.5, you have a team that better enjoy a large field goal margin advantage, or they will be one and done or two and out.

When this stat is negative, you have a team that will be eliminated quickly, even if they are playing a lower seed. We have isolated many early round upsets due to this statistic, and we have eliminated many teams expected to perform well that bombed in the opening round.

Whats interesting about PiRate is they back tested 50 years and found those 5 stats were the most important in determining a champion. It makes sense that having a high field goal % vs your opponents is most important. It shows you can make shots and hold your opponents on defense.

Last year on March 17th, 2015 PiRate predicted an elite 8 of Virginia, Villanova, Duke, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Wichita State, Arizona, Wisconsin. They got 5 out of 8. They predicted a final 4 of Duke, Virginia, Kentucky, and Arizona. They got 2 out of 4. They predicted a championship game of Kentucky vs Duke with Kentucky winning it all. For me, having Duke in the championship game last year was enough to prove this analysis should be taken seriously.

The problem with predictions in the NCAA tourney, as we all know, is it can come down to one shot, one free throw for the script to flip. It's the reason no one has ever picked a perfect bracket; there's too much unpredictability. However, we can have a pretty good idea of who the contenders are before the tournament starts and this is the best prediction method i've found yet.

The magic number is a field goal margin close to +10% or higher. And the minimum margin for most champions is +7.5%.

These are the teams that make the cut:

1. Michigan State: +10.90%
2. Maryland: +9%
3. Kentucky: +8.2%
4. Virginia: +8%
5. Purdue: +7.8%
6. Villanova: +7.6%
7. Kansas: +7.6%

However, once you look at the teams with a high average scoring margin it becomes clear who the favorites are:

1. Michigan State: +16
2. Villanova: +14.7
3. Purdue: +14
4. Kansas: +12.9
5. Maryland: +11.2
6. Kentucky: +11.9
7. Virginia: +11.6

The problem I have with Purdue is they have a -2.20 turnover margin, their Ken Pom adj OFF ranking is 67th, their offensive efficiency ranking is 37th, and their effective field goal % is 70th. They are strong defensively though as their Ken Pom adj DEF ranking is 7th, their defensive efficiency rankings is 8th, and their opponent effective field goal % is 4th. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR PURDUE AS THEY CAN DEFINITELY MAKE SOME NOISE IN THE TOURNAMENT, BUT I JUST DONT THINK THEY WILL MAKE THE FINAL 4.

The problem I have with Villanova is their rebound margin is only 3.30, and the mimimum for most champions is +5 or higher. They have been snakebitten is recent tournaments and while most of their numbers are strong, they just don't compare to the other front runners. I will be very surprised if they make it to the final 4.

The problem I have with Maryland is their rebound margin is only 4.30, they have a -2.0 turnover margin, and their R+T margin is 9.2. They have too many turnovers and they've had several close wins. I honestly thought Maryland would have met most if not all the characteristics, but the numbers say otherwise.

The problem I have with Virginia is their rebound margin is only 3.6 and their R+T margin is only 13.55. Also, their opponent effective field goal percentage ranking is 101st. Their numbers are strong, but if they run into a hot shooting team they will struggle to defend.

I can't understand any of your calculations as I am sure a lot do so.........

I like the simple stuff like the prediction of early brackets.... u#1 s go to KU, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Villanova. Sounds good to me!!!!

This PiRate blog backtested all kinds of stats for 50 years and found a strong correlation of these stats for most final 4 teams:

• Teams that have a much higher field goal percentage than their opponents (min 7.5 % margin)
• Teams who win by a large amount over their opponents (min 8 point margin)
• Teams who rebound more than their opponents (min 8 rebound margin)
• Teams who turn the ball over less than their opponents (less turnovers than their opponents and a positive turnover margin)
• Teams who steal the ball more than their opponents to create more opportunities on offense.

Ju

st like in football, the team who causes turnovers while limiting their own turnovers has more opportunities to score. Also, the team who rebounds the ball more than their opponents also has more opportunities to score. Combine those two with a team who shoots a high percentage and you have the recipe for a final 4 capable team.