predictions for Oklahoma State game

Big win in Norman, in-state rivalry game coming up this weekend.  Today's
game would normally have all the makings of a trap game, being, on paper,
the easiest game remaining on the schedule, except the Jayhawks were
thoroughly embarrassed in Stillwater, and that alone should have their
attention.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 14.5 point margin, with a 91.9 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 142.3 points
per game (Oklahoma State plays the lowest scoring games in the conference),
that suggests a final score of Kansas 78, Oklahoma State 64.  Kansas has
been playing 0.7 points above expectation, while Oklahoma State has been
playing 0.1 points below expectation, which means that the Jayhawks could
be a 15.2 point favorite.  Kansas is still recovering from the road losses
to Oklahoma State and Iowa State, along with the late-game meltdown at
home against TCU, which saddled the Jayhawks with a negative trend.  It's
still negative, but no longer statistically significant.  Oklahoma State,
by virtue of its big home win over Kansas, still has a positive trend,
but it's also not statistically significant.  Likewise, the mental
toughness rating for Kansas is negative, but not statistically significant,
while the rating for Oklahoma State is positive, and with marginal
significance.  Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas drops to just
12.8 points.  The Cowboys are slightly more consistent than the Jayhawks.
Only twice has Kansas played by more than 14.5 points below expectation,
which would be enough to lose today's game.  Of course, one of those two
occasions was to these same Cowboys, but in Stillwater.  The other was
against Harvard, a home game for Kansas.  Likewise, Oklahoma State has
played just two games by more than 14.5 points above expectation, which
would be enough to win today's game.  Other than the aforementioned home
embarrassment of Kansas, their very first game of the season against
Tennessee Martin was an impressive win.  Since that win over Kansas, the
best the Cowboys have done is 6.2 points above expectation against Auburn.
The average of the probabilities of Oklahoma State winning are just 8.2
percent, in very good agreement with what is based on the Sagarin ratings
shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 15.0 point underdog, with a 93 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, Oklahoma State 63.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 11.6 units, as well
as the better adjusted defense by 2.0 units, which combine to a 13.6 units
advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 67.7 possessions per game, the
margin for the Jayhawks works out to 9.2 points on a neutral court.  Given
Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 12.5 point favorite.
The ratings suggest a final score of Kansas 77, Oklahoma State 64.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 14.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 75.5 (you pick the rounding) to 61.  Among the key offensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of eight categories; Oklahoma State
attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of seven categories; Oklahoma State
holds opponents to fewer points per game and a lower effective field goal
percentage, as well as getting more blocks per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 15.0 points, so he is picking Oklahoma State against the spread.  With
a total points projection of 145, the implied final score is Kansas 79,
Oklahoma State 66.  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 137.0, which would
imply a final score of Kansas 76, Oklahoma State 61.

Real Time gives Kansas a whopping 23.0 point margin with a final score of
Kansas 88, Oklahoma State 65.  The probability of winning the game is given
as 84.7 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.  Guess
who is back on top of the RPI rankings?

Dolphin gives Kansas a 13.4 point margin, with an 88.1 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 77, Oklahoma State 63,
with the rounding working in the Jayhawks' favor.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 15.6 units in favor of Kansas, but we
need to calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling
factor of 0.726 just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick
with that value for consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas an 11.3 point
favorite on a neutral court, but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point
home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 14.6 point favorite.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 8.3 points in favor
of Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and Kansas is an 11.6 point favorite.  I'm beginning to question
the BPI's rating method.  Easily the lowest ranking for Kansas of anyone,
and to make matters even worse, the BPI claims that Oklahoma State has played
the tougher schedule, whereas Sagarin has Oklahoma State with the weakest
schedule of anyone in the Big 12 conference, and all the other SOS rankings
have Kansas with the stronger schedule.  Come on, Jay Bilas; tell us about
the superiority of the BPI!  Then try to explain the current rankings for
Kansas.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin, corresponding to a 97 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 78 to 65.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 16.4 point margin.  But the Jayhawks are his #1 team.

DPPI gives Kansas an 18.5 point margin.

There are eight common opponents, all from the conference, two of which
Oklahoma State has played twice (Baylor and Kansas State), two of which
Kansas has played twice (West Virginia and Oklahoma), and one of which
both have played twice (TCU), in which case I'm using only the home-home
and road-road permutations, plus the head-to-head in Stillwater, giving
us 14 scores to compare:

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU  +19 TCU on road (+23 neutral)
OSU +21 TCU at home (+17 neutral)     OSU  -7 TCU on road ( -3 neutral)
KU  -10 OSU at home (-14 neutral)     KU  +30 OSU at home (+26 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)     KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
OSU -17 BU  on road (-13 neutral)     OSU  -4 BU  at home ( -8 neutral)
KU  +41 OSU at home (+37 neutral)     KU  +36 OSU at home (+32 neutral)

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)     KU  +10 WV  at home ( +6 neutral)
OSU -17 WV  on road (-13 neutral)     OSU -17 WV  on road (-13 neutral)
KU  +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral)     KU  +23 OSU at home (+19 neutral)

KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)     KU   +4 OU  on road ( +8 neutral)
OSU  -2 OU  at home ( -6 neutral)     OSU  -2 OU  at home ( -6 neutral)
KU   +9 OSU at home ( +5 neutral)     KU  +19 OSU at home (+14 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
OSU  -5 UT  on road ( -1 neutral)
KU  +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral)

KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)     KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)
OSU -16 KSU on road (-12 neutral)     OSU  +3 KSU at home ( -1 neutral)
KU  +30 OSU at home (+30 neutral)     KU  +19 OSU at home (+19 neutral)

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
OSU  -2 TT  on road ( +2 neutral)
KU  +16 OSU at home (+12 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
OSU  -5 ISU at home ( -9 neutral)
KU   +4 OSU at home (  0 neutral)

KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)
KU  -11 OSU at home (-15 neutral)

Twelve of the comparisons favor Kansas, and two favor Oklahoma State.  The
average is 16.1 points in favor of Kansas, but with a standard deviation
that is almost as large, namely 15.6 points.

Players to watch:  Guard Jeff Newberry plays the most minutes and is their
leading thief.  Guard Phil Forte is their leading scorer, but he's out for
the game, perhaps the rest of the season, with an elbow injury.  Their second
leading scorer is guard Jawun Evans, who also dishes the most assists, but
also commits the most turnovers; he missed the last game with a shoulder
injury, and there is no timetable for a return.  That's bad news for the
Cowboys, as he was a key figure in their upset of the Jayhawks earlier in the
season.  Guard Leyton Hammonds is their leading rebounder (and their second,
third, and fourth leading rebounders are also guards).  Forward Anthony Allen Jr.
is their leading shot blocker.  Forward Mitchell Solomon leads the team in one
category, namely personal fouls.

The average of the various prognostications is 15.1 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 79, Oklahoma State 64.  If Evans does
not play, make it an even larger margin.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  3   #  4   #  5   #  3   #  3   +0.7   10.5   -0.10 +/- 0.32   -0.08 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State # 72   # 49   # 68   # 73   # 78   -0.1   10.2   +0.15 +/- 0.29   +0.21 +/- 0.19
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  3   #  5   #  5   #  2  #  1    # 10    #  5   #  5   #  1   #  3
Oklahoma State #100  # 50   # 67   # 51   # 67  # 54    # 91    #147   # 73   #145   # 99
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  4   #  3   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.111   21-4     #     #   
Oklahoma State #111   #111   # 67   #135   #143   #156   #107   0.620   12-13    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  2  #  3    #  2  # 14    # 12  # 49    #  8  # 10    #  7  #  6    #  1  #  2
Oklahoma State #117  # 48    # 80  # 39    # 84  # 45    # 66  # 44    #143  # 59    # 88  # 12

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #318 Northern Colorado          109  72   +34.34    +2.66
NEUT   #  1 Michigan State              73  79    -1.11    -4.89
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 52 UCLA                        92  73    +9.41    +9.59
NEUT   # 19 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +3.51    +3.49
HOME   #276 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +30.35    +2.65
HOME   #173 Harvard                     75  69   +23.26   -17.26
HOME   #302 Holy Cross                  92  59   +32.88    +0.12
HOME   # 66 Oregon State                82  67   +14.31    +0.69
HOME   #164 Montana                     88  46   +22.77   +19.23
AWAY   # 67 San Diego State             70  57    +7.67    +5.33
HOME   #106 UC Irvine                   78  53   +17.93    +7.07
HOME   # 35 Baylor                     102  74    +9.75   +18.25
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                   109 106    +4.19    -1.19
AWAY   # 48 Texas Tech                  69  59    +5.50    +4.50
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               63  74    -3.82    -7.18
HOME   #123 TCU                         70  63   +19.90   -12.90
AWAY   # 68 Oklahoma State              67  86    +7.83   -26.83
HOME   # 32 Texas                       76  67    +9.16    -0.16
AWAY   # 21 Iowa State                  72  85    +0.86   -13.86
HOME   # 12 Kentucky                    90  84    +5.09    +0.91
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                77  59   +12.08    +5.92
AWAY   #123 TCU                         75  56   +13.24    +5.76
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               75  65    +2.84    +7.16
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                    76  72    -2.47    +6.47
HOME   # 68 Oklahoma State                       +14.49             0.919
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                          +5.42             0.719
AWAY   # 35 Baylor                                +3.09             0.610
HOME   # 48 Texas Tech                           +12.16             0.906
AWAY   # 32 Texas                                 +2.50             0.594
HOME   # 21 Iowa State                            +7.52             0.788

Here is Oklahoma State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #235 Tennessee-Martin            91  57   +16.48   +17.52
HOME   #347 Ark.-Pine Bluff             86  72   +28.30   -14.30
NEUT   #162 Towson                      69  52    +8.18    +8.82
NEUT   #198 George Mason                68  71   +10.61   -13.61
NEUT   #105 Long Beach State            82  77    +3.30    +1.70
HOME   #105 Long Beach State            79  73    +6.63    -0.63
HOME   # 60 Tulsa                       56  66    +2.45   -12.45
HOME   #215 Missouri State              63  64   +14.99   -15.99
AWAY   #143 Minnesota                   62  60    +3.72    -1.72
HOME   #303 Longwood                    73  55   +21.84    -3.84
AWAY   # 30 Florida                     70  72    -8.91    +6.91
HOME   #243 Kansas City(UMKC)           61  43   +17.02    +0.98
HOME   #123 TCU                         69  48    +8.74   +12.26
AWAY   # 35 Baylor                      62  79    -8.07    -8.93
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               60  77   -14.98    -2.02
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                    72  74    -6.97    +4.97
AWAY   # 32 Texas                       69  74    -8.66    +3.66
HOME   #  5 Kansas                      86  67    -7.83   +26.83
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                73  89    -5.74   -10.26
HOME   # 35 Baylor                      65  69    -1.41    -2.59
AWAY   #163 Auburn                      74  63    +4.85    +6.15
AWAY   # 48 Texas Tech                  61  63    -5.66    +3.66
HOME   # 21 Iowa State                  59  64    -3.64    -1.36
AWAY   #123 TCU                         56  63    +2.08    -9.08
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                58  55    +0.92    +2.08
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                               -14.49             0.081
HOME   # 48 Texas Tech                            +1.00             0.544
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                             -13.63             0.072
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         -8.32             0.210
AWAY   # 21 Iowa State                           -10.30             0.133
HOME   # 32 Texas                                 -2.00             0.423