predictions for Oklahoma game

So far, both teams have managed to avoid any home conference losses.
Assuming that continues, the conference will be decided by whom performs
the best on the road.  Losing to another contender on the road is not to
be unexpected, while losing to an also-ran shouldn't happen, yet that's
exactly what happened to Kansas in Stillwater and to Oklahoma in Manhattan.
Coincidentally, both involved losses to the coach's alma mater.  Hmm.
Anyway, how the teams play on the road against that middle tier of teams
is most likely to decide the conference race.  Both teams lost to Iowa
State.  Both teams have yet to play at Texas.  Also important, Oklahoma has
yet to play at West Virginia.  A win by Kansas today would certainly help.

Sagarin makes Kansas a 3.0 point underdog, with a 37.7 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 152.7 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 75, Oklahoma 78.  Kansas
has been playing 0.6 points above expectation, but Oklahoma has been playing
0.8 points above expectation, which means that the Jayhawks could be a
3.2 point underdog.  Both teams have negative trends, though Kansas' is no
longer statistically significant, while Oklahoma's does have some significance.
Both teams also have negative mental toughness ratings, though neither is
statistically significant.  Nevertheless, taken at face value, the margin
for Oklahoma would decrease to 2.3 points.  Oklahoma is the conference's
third most consistent team, while Kansas is the conference's second most
inconsistent team.  Kansas has played 12 of 23 Division I games above
expectation by more than 3.0 points, including their last 3, though only
8 of those 12 were by more than 4.0 points, which would be needed to avoid
another overtime affair.  Still, 12 fo 23 corresponds to a 52.2 percent
chance of winning today's game.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma has played 9 of 23
games below expectation by more than 3.0 points, including their last 2,
though only 8 of those of those 9 were by more than 4.0 points, which would
be needed to avoid another overtime affair.  Still 9 for 23 corresponds to
a 39.1 percent chance of the Sooners losing the game.  Those average to a
45.7 percent chance of Kansas winning, somewhat more favorable odds than
derived from the Sagarin ratings shown above.

Massey makes Kansas a 6.0 point underdog, with a 30 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 77, Oklahoma 83.

Pomeroy has Oklahoma with the better adjusted offense by 1.3 units, as well
as the better adjusted defense by 0.1 units, which combine to a 1.4 units
advantage for Oklahoma.  With an average of 71.1 possessions per game, the
margin for the Sooners works out to 1.0 points on a neutral court.  Given
Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 4.3 point underdog.
The ratings suggest a final score of Kansas 73, Oklahoma 78.

Greenfield makes Kansas a 4.5 point underdog, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 76 to 80.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in three of eight categories, namely offensive rebound percentage, free throw
attempts per field goal attempt, and turnover percentage, while the average score
margin is a wash.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in
just one of seven categories, namely opponents points per game.

Dunkel makes Kansas a 2.5 point underdog, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 5.0 points for Oklahoma, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With
a total points projection of 161, the implied final score is Kansas 79,
Oklahoma 82.  Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 156.0, which would
imply a final score of Kansas 75.5, Oklahoma 80.5 (you pick the roundings).

Real Time makes Kansas a whopping 12.0 point underdog with a final score of
Kansas 73, Oklahoma 85.  The probability of winning the game is given as 28.1
percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.  We are
playing #1 in the RPI today.

Dolphin makes Kansas a 2.9 point underdog, with a 40.6 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 77, Oklahoma 80.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 0.9 units in favor of Oklahoma, but we
need to calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling
factor of 0.726 just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick
with that value for consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 0.6 point
underdog on a neutral court, but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point
home court advantage, Kansas becomes a 4.0 point underdog.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 3.1 points in favor
of Oklahoma on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court
advantage, and Kansas is a 6.4 point underdog.

Seven Overtimes makes Kansas a 4.0 point underdog, corresponding to a 36 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 74 to 78.

Crotistics makes Kansas a 3.1 point underdog.  But the Jayhawks are his #1 team.

DPPI makes Kansas a 2.5 point underdog with a 43.2 percent chance of winning the
game.

There are nine common opponents, eight from the conference plus Harvard,
two of which Oklahoma has played twice (Iowa State and Kansas State), and two
of which Kansas has played twice (West Virginia and TCU), plus the head-to-head
in Lawrence, giving us 14 scores to compare:

KU   +6 Har at home ( +2 neutral)
OU  +12 Har neutral (+12 neutral)
KU  -14 OU  on road (-10 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)     KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
OU   +4 ISU at home (  0 neutral)     OU   -5 ISU on road ( -1 neutral)
KU  -13 OU  on road ( -9 neutral)     KU  -12 OU  on road ( -8 neutral)

KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)     KU  +18 KSU at home (+14 neutral)
OU  +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral)     OU  -11 KSU on road ( -7 neutral)
KU   +4 OU  on road ( +8 neutral)     KU  +17 OU  on road (+21 neutral)

KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)
OU   +2 OSU on road ( +6 neutral)
KU  -25 OU  on road (-21 neutral)

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)     KU  +10 WV  at home ( +6 neutral)
OU   +2 WV  at home ( -2 neutral)     OU   +2 WV  at home ( -2 neutral)
KU   -9 OU  on road ( -5 neutral)     KU   +4 OU  on road ( +8 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
OU  +10 BU  on road (+14 neutral)
KU   +6 OU  on road (+10 neutral)

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
OU  +24 TT  at home (+20 neutral)
KU  -10 OU  on road ( -6 neutral)

KU   +7 TCU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU  +19 TCU on road (+23 neutral)
OU  +23 TCU at home (+19 neutral)     OU  +23 TCU at home (+19 neutral)
KU  -20 OU  on road (-16 neutral)     KU    0 OU  on road ( +4 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  at home ( +5 neutral)
OU   +3 UT  at home ( -1 neutral)
KU   +2 OU  on road ( +6 neutral)

KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
KU   -5 OU  on road ( -1 neutral)

Five of the comparisons favor Kansas, eight favor Oklahoma, and one is a wash.
The average is 5.4 points in favor of Oklahoma.

Players to watch:  Guard Buddy Hield plays the most minutes, scores the most
points, but also commits the most turnovers.  Guard Isaiah Cousins dishes the
most assists.  Forward Ryan Spangler grabs the most rebounds.  Forward Khadeem
Lattin blocks the most shots, but also commits the most personal fouls.  Guard
Jordan Woodard is their leading thief.

The average of the various prognostications is 4.5 points in favor of Oklahoma.
projected final score would be Kansas 74, Oklahoma 79.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  4   #  6   #  5   #  5   #  7   +0.6   10.7   -0.19 +/- 0.34   -0.14 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma       #  3   #  5   #  6   #  3   #  4   +0.8    8.4   -0.39 +/- 0.26   -0.04 +/- 0.18
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  6  #  8   #  7   # 12   #  3  #  4    # 10    #  5   #  7   #  4   #  5
Oklahoma       #  2  #  1   #  5   #  3   #  8  #  3    #  5    #  3   # 21   #  1   # 14
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  4   #  5   #  5   #  4   #  2   #  4   1.039   20-4     #  5  # 17
Oklahoma       #  1   #  1   #  8   #  2   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.032   20-3     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  6  #  8    #  3  # 25    # 13  # 56    # 10  # 11    #  7  #  7    #  1  #  2
Oklahoma       #  3  # 13    #  2  #  8    #  1  # 22    #  5  # 21    #  4  #  2    #  3  #  6

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #319 Northern Colorado          109  72   +33.89    +3.11
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              73  79    -1.06    -4.94
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 57 UCLA                        92  73    +9.65    +9.35
NEUT   # 20 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +3.78    +3.22
HOME   #275 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +29.83    +3.17
HOME   #166 Harvard                     75  69   +22.65   -16.65
HOME   #300 Holy Cross                  92  59   +32.60    +0.40
HOME   # 68 Oregon State                82  67   +14.00    +1.00
HOME   #164 Montana                     88  46   +22.47   +19.53
AWAY   # 65 San Diego State             70  57    +7.10    +5.90
HOME   #103 UC Irvine                   78  53   +17.39    +7.61
HOME   # 30 Baylor                     102  74    +8.61   +19.39
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                   109 106    +3.64    -0.64
AWAY   # 53 Texas Tech                  69  59    +6.19    +3.81
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia               63  74    -3.73    -7.27
HOME   #118 TCU                         70  63   +19.18   -12.18
AWAY   # 72 Oklahoma State              67  86    +7.65   -26.65
HOME   # 31 Texas                       76  67    +8.77    +0.23
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  72  85    +0.81   -13.81
HOME   # 15 Kentucky                    90  84    +5.70    +0.30
HOME   # 46 Kansas State                77  59   +11.75    +6.25
AWAY   #118 TCU                         75  56   +12.52    +6.48
HOME   #  4 West Virginia               75  65    +2.93    +7.07
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                              -3.02             0.377
HOME   # 72 Oklahoma State                       +14.31             0.913
AWAY   # 46 Kansas State                          +5.09             0.704
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                                +1.95             0.572
HOME   # 53 Texas Tech                           +12.85             0.930
AWAY   # 31 Texas                                 +2.11             0.579
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                            +7.47             0.781

Here is Oklahoma's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 78 Memphis                     84  78    +7.84    -1.84
HOME   #316 McNeese State               85  56   +33.45    -4.45
HOME   #242 Incarnate Word              96  63   +27.61    +5.39
HOME   # 47 Wisconsin                   65  48   +11.60    +5.40
HOME   #314 Central Arkansas           111  68   +33.31    +9.69
NEUT   #  1 Villanova                   78  55    -1.51   +24.51
HOME   #179 Oral Roberts                96  73   +23.36    -0.36
HOME   # 44 Creighton                   87  74   +11.05    +1.95
NEUT   #144 Washington State            88  60   +17.55   +10.45
NEUT   # 66 Hawai'i                     84  81   +10.13    -7.13
NEUT   #166 Harvard                     83  71   +19.01    -7.01
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  87  83    +7.16    -3.16
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                     106 109    -3.64    +0.64
HOME   # 46 Kansas State                86  76   +11.44    -1.44
AWAY   # 72 Oklahoma State              74  72    +7.34    -5.34
HOME   #  4 West Virginia               70  68    +2.62    -0.62
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  77  82    +0.50    -5.50
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                      82  72    +1.64    +8.36
HOME   # 53 Texas Tech                  91  67   +12.54   +11.46
AWAY   # 62 LSU                         77  75    +6.52    -4.52
HOME   #118 TCU                         95  72   +18.87    +4.13
AWAY   # 46 Kansas State                69  80    +4.78   -15.78
HOME   # 31 Texas                       63  60    +8.46    -5.46
HOME   #  5 Kansas                                +3.02             0.623
AWAY   # 53 Texas Tech                            +5.88             0.788
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia                         -4.04             0.335
HOME   # 72 Oklahoma State                       +14.00             0.930
AWAY   # 31 Texas                                 +1.80             0.575
HOME   # 30 Baylor                                +8.30             0.806
AWAY   #118 TCU                                  +12.21             0.915