projected Big 12 standings, Round 8

Oklahoma's home win over Oklahoma State, coupled with TCU's loss to Baylor, was enough for
the Sooners and Horned Frogs to swap places in the projected standings.  It was also enough
for Oklahoma to edge out fellow winner (but less impressively) Texas for fifth place.  No
other changes.  Kansas and Baylor are still projected to tie for the championship with 15-3
records, which means that seven conference members have now been eliminated (not mathematically,
but probablistically).  And we're not yet halfway through the conference season.

                      Init.  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  13.72  14.14  14.28  14.36  14.77  14.89    7  1   UT  (Mo)   KU  by 14.3
#  6  Baylor          10.99  13.33  13.60  14.01  14.05  14.59  14.77    8  0  @KSU (Mo)   BU  by  5.9  RW
#  7  West Virginia   10.73  12.22  12.64  11.31  11.91  11.37  11.56    5  3   ISU (We)   WVU by 10.5
# 18  Texas Tech       9.33   9.01   9.55   9.96   9.31   9.93   9.88    4  4   OU  (Tu)   TTU by  6.6
# 47  Oklahoma         7.19   7.91   7.50   8.05   7.93   7.47   7.97    4  4  @TTU (Tu)   
# 54  Texas            7.25   6.47   7.45   7.58   6.62   7.58   7.95    4  4  @KU  (Mo)   
# 62  TCU              7.46   8.83   8.37   7.71   8.49   7.58   7.33    4  4  @OSU (We)   
# 55  Iowa State       8.35   7.86   7.61   6.82   7.44   6.72   6.24    2  6  @WVU (We)   
# 68  Kansas State     5.30   4.08   3.46   4.78   4.83   5.47   5.48    2  6   BU  (Mo)   
# 67  Oklahoma State   8.95   6.57   5.68   5.50   5.06   4.52   3.93    0  8   TCU (We)   OSU by  2.9

Vegas took honors for best prognostications in Round 8.  Massey retains the season lead.
Worst predictions came from Colley.  Dunkel is still bringing up rear for the season.
And in the head scratcher category, Seven Overtimes had Oklahoma with a 63 percent chance
of beating Oklahoma State, yet the projected score had Oklahoma State by 1.  Go figure.

Predictions                                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
WVU over KSU    12.5  14.0  14.5  13.0   7.0  12.0  12.2  23.9  15.4  10.0  22.0  15.6  13.5  15.7
BU  over TCU    11.2  17.0  13.0  11.0  14.0  11.5  10.5  16.1  16.9   9.0  16.0  13.0  12.2  17.8
KU  over TTU    10.5  13.0  11.7   9.0  14.0   9.0  10.2  20.5  12.5   8.0  21.0  13.2  11.5  10.2
OU  over OSU     4.3   7.0   5.9   5.5   5.0   6.5   4.4  10.3   4.8  -1.0  11.0   4.4   5.3   6.6
UT  over ISU     3.0   4.0   3.5   3.0  -1.0   3.0   2.9  10.0   4.8   8.0  11.0   2.4   4.0   3.8

       Reality  Error                                                                            
       -------  -------2.5----------------------2-----------1-----------2----0.5------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
           9     3.5   5.0   5.5   4.0   2.0   3.0   3.2  14.9   6.4   1.0  13.0   6.6   4.5   6.7
          16     4.8   1.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   4.5   5.5   0.1   0.9   7.0   0.0   3.0   3.8   1.8
           3     7.5  10.0   8.7   6.0  11.0   6.0   7.2  17.5   9.5   5.0  18.0  10.2   8.5   7.2
          13     8.7   6.0   7.1   7.5   8.0   6.5   8.6   2.7   8.2  14.0   2.0   8.6   7.7   6.4
           4     1.0   0.0   0.5   1.0   5.0   1.0   1.1   6.0   0.8   4.0   7.0   1.6   0.0   0.2

total           25.5  22.0  24.8  23.5  28.0  21.0  25.6  41.2  25.8  31.0  40.0  30.0  24.5  22.3
previous       364.1 341.0 351.1 362.5 422.5 352.5 365.5 375.2 349.7 385.0 401.0 353.4 364.9 363.3
cumulative     389.6 363.0 375.9 386.0 450.5 373.5 391.1 416.4 375.5 416.0 441.0 383.4 389.4 385.6
per game         9.7   9.1   9.4   9.6  11.3   9.3   9.8  10.4   9.4  10.4  11.0   9.6   9.7   9.6

No road wins were projected for Round 8, and none happened.  Only one road win is projected for
Round 9, though one can hope that Kansas State can repeat the West Virginia game in the Octogon
by beating Baylor.

Road wins (14 out of 40)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
4 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU           0 Baylor                               +4 Baylor        
4 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU           0 West Virginia                        +3 Kansas        
2 Texas          OSU TCU                   1 Kansas         BU                    +1 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       UT                        1 Oklahoma       KU                     0 Oklahoma      
1 TCU            KSU                       1 TCU            UT                     0 TCU           
1 Texas Tech     KSU                       1 Texas Tech     BU                     0 Texas         
1 West Virginia  OSU                       2 Iowa State     KU  BU                 0 Texas Tech    
0 Iowa State                               2 Kansas State   TCU TTU               -2 Iowa State    
0 Kansas State                             2 Texas          OU  KU                -2 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                           4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU        -4 Oklahoma State

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.44    Baylor            7.93    
West Virginia   +1.76    Oklahoma          8.79    
Baylor          +1.69    Kansas State      9.78    
TCU             +0.32    Kansas           10.20    
Texas Tech      +0.14    TCU              10.34    
Oklahoma State  -0.23    Iowa State       10.73    
Oklahoma        -0.62    Texas            11.08    
Kansas State    -1.08    West Virginia    11.11    
Iowa State      -1.20    Texas Tech       11.36    
Texas           -1.89    Oklahoma State   15.71    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +0.41 +/- 0.30    Baylor          +0.26 +/- 0.15
Kansas State    +0.32 +/- 0.35    Oklahoma        +0.12 +/- 0.20
West Virginia   +0.29 +/- 0.41    Texas Tech      +0.10 +/- 0.22
Texas Tech      +0.15 +/- 0.42    Kansas State     0.00 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.32    Iowa State      -0.06 +/- 0.19
Texas           -0.26 +/- 0.41    West Virginia   -0.08 +/- 0.33
TCU             -0.32 +/- 0.40    Texas           -0.21 +/- 0.25
Kansas          -0.33 +/- 0.40    Kansas          -0.44 +/- 0.28
Iowa State      -0.39 +/- 0.39    Oklahoma State  -0.61 +/- 0.38
Oklahoma State  -0.65 +/- 0.56    TCU             -0.64 +/- 0.22

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          74.80   Baylor          58.40   Iowa State      146.90   Kansas          +13.40   
Iowa State      74.14   Kansas          61.40   Oklahoma        139.24   Baylor          +13.35   
Texas Tech      72.95   West Virginia   61.71   Texas Tech      137.76   West Virginia   +11.19   
West Virginia   72.90   Kansas State    64.00   Kansas          136.20   Texas Tech       +8.14   
Baylor          71.75   TCU             64.15   West Virginia   134.62   Oklahoma         +3.24   
Oklahoma        71.24   Texas           64.19   Oklahoma State  132.57   TCU              +2.50   
TCU             66.65   Texas Tech      64.81   TCU             130.80   Texas            +1.48   
Oklahoma State  66.33   Oklahoma State  66.24   Baylor          130.15   Iowa State       +1.38   
Texas           65.67   Oklahoma        68.00   Texas           129.86   Kansas State     +0.67   
Kansas State    64.67   Iowa State      72.76   Kansas State    128.67   Oklahoma State   +0.10   

TCU playing at Baylor boosted the cellar dwellar (in strength of schedule)
considerably, but not by enough to escape the cellar.  But all Big 12
teams are now in the Top 60.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          81.98 ( 1)
Iowa State      80.73 ( 6)
Oklahoma State  80.27 ( 8)
Oklahoma        79.55 (16)
West Virginia   79.16 (22)
Kansas State    79.12 (23)
Texas           77.95 (39)
Texas Tech      77.67 (44)
Baylor          77.65 (45)
TCU             76.87 (59)